As I, and others, have noted, DFS is a lot like Poker. One of the more important skills you develop from playing a lot of hands of cards is tangible feeling for what cards are held with other players hole cards. You never know 100% for sure, just like you never really what batters or pitchers another player has in his lineup. But without this skill, there is no way to wager effectively in Poker, which is just as true in DFS.
Sure, it's a complete unknown, but any player you would consider playing has a likelihood of popping up in other lineups (and what it's like facing).
I've called this the "Clayton Kershaw" effect, but whenever a pitcher like him takes the mound you know there will be a lot of lineups with these guys in it. You know it because you tried to field a lineup with a $13,200 Chris Sale on Draft Kings,or a $12,500 Max Scherzer on Fan Duel. In poker, most people only bet the good hands, and fielding a Kershaw, Sale, or Scherzer means the hand is starting off pretty darn strong. On "Clayton Kershaw" days, I tend to limit my dollars bet and look more toward triple ups or better because: (1) If I play him, I tend to not love the roster I put together,or (2) If I don't play him, I don't want to take the chance that he goes off along with some unpredictable cheap hitters on that guys team. It's the way you bet when you have a good feel that someone's holding a high pair: stay in if it's cheap enough, don't call a pricey bet, and look for excellent pot ratios to stay in the game.
Occasionally, the sites just miss the mark on the value of a player. Normally, it occurs when a player inherits a starting job due to injury, or moves up the batting order, or some other shake up on their baseball team. Just this week, the Troy Tulowitski trade to Toronto dropped his price to under $4000 on Draft Kings. A numerical algorithm can't predict what a new venue will do for a player. These guys are all good gambles for the price, and they should make up a large percentage of your roster. For the price, the possible returns with a good flop can't be dismissed. If you hold a pair of 9's, a single nine on the flop is a harbinger of a good payout.
Because everybody is trying to roster the highest dollar pitchers and hitters, the guys at or very near the bottom of the cost structure (Draft Kings $2800-$2000, Fan Duel $2500-$2200, Yahoo $7-$10). In poker, you are never going to put money on these bad hands, but in DFS it's like taking a Deuce to guarantee your self an Ace. If rostering Carlos Sanchez allows me to get at Clayton Kershaw, sign me up. So these schlubs are scattered throughout lineups played. If the flop comes, 7-7-2, they are going to take your money. If a $2200 Melvin Upton Jr homers and steals a base, you just chalk it up to bad luck. It won't happen too often, but happens enough that it's something you need to be aware of.
When a game is being held in Denver, you take notice. More runs are scored there than any other stadium. The stadium makes good players great, but more importantly makes bad players solid, and solid players good. You can get good nights out of cheap opposing backups Catchers and it makes the Ben Paulsen's of the world look awesome. It is the true Joker of the DFS game. If you're not playing these guys, you're making a mistake. And when you don't they are going to be owned more than you want. I prefer playing games when the Rockies are on the road because you get truer outcomes. If I put together a good line with limited players from a game in Colorado, I will reduce my betting because the specter of Coors Field is not to be trifled with.
You need to be aware of what could be in the other teams lineups.
Sure, it's a complete unknown, but any player you would consider playing has a likelihood of popping up in other lineups (and what it's like facing).
- Big Dollar Stud Pitchers
I've called this the "Clayton Kershaw" effect, but whenever a pitcher like him takes the mound you know there will be a lot of lineups with these guys in it. You know it because you tried to field a lineup with a $13,200 Chris Sale on Draft Kings,or a $12,500 Max Scherzer on Fan Duel. In poker, most people only bet the good hands, and fielding a Kershaw, Sale, or Scherzer means the hand is starting off pretty darn strong. On "Clayton Kershaw" days, I tend to limit my dollars bet and look more toward triple ups or better because: (1) If I play him, I tend to not love the roster I put together,or (2) If I don't play him, I don't want to take the chance that he goes off along with some unpredictable cheap hitters on that guys team. It's the way you bet when you have a good feel that someone's holding a high pair: stay in if it's cheap enough, don't call a pricey bet, and look for excellent pot ratios to stay in the game.- Big Dollar Stud Hitters
Mike Trout is super dangerous. Bryce Harper is super dangerous. Paul Goldschmidt is super dangerous. There's a secondary tier of these guys, but these are the big three. Whenever you're in after the opening bet in a game of cards, you just know that someone is holding some face cards, more often than not an Ace. It's not bad strategy to occasionally play a lesser hand in the hopes of a favorable flop, because they are not just possible, but more likely than you think. But you have to bet knowing the real possibility of their existence. In DFS terms, this doesn't stop you from betting all the money you want to bet, but it shifts me toward 50/50's, if I don't choose to field them.
- Anybody who is underpriced
Occasionally, the sites just miss the mark on the value of a player. Normally, it occurs when a player inherits a starting job due to injury, or moves up the batting order, or some other shake up on their baseball team. Just this week, the Troy Tulowitski trade to Toronto dropped his price to under $4000 on Draft Kings. A numerical algorithm can't predict what a new venue will do for a player. These guys are all good gambles for the price, and they should make up a large percentage of your roster. For the price, the possible returns with a good flop can't be dismissed. If you hold a pair of 9's, a single nine on the flop is a harbinger of a good payout.- Anybody Dirt Cheap.
Because everybody is trying to roster the highest dollar pitchers and hitters, the guys at or very near the bottom of the cost structure (Draft Kings $2800-$2000, Fan Duel $2500-$2200, Yahoo $7-$10). In poker, you are never going to put money on these bad hands, but in DFS it's like taking a Deuce to guarantee your self an Ace. If rostering Carlos Sanchez allows me to get at Clayton Kershaw, sign me up. So these schlubs are scattered throughout lineups played. If the flop comes, 7-7-2, they are going to take your money. If a $2200 Melvin Upton Jr homers and steals a base, you just chalk it up to bad luck. It won't happen too often, but happens enough that it's something you need to be aware of.- Anybody Playing in Coors Field
When a game is being held in Denver, you take notice. More runs are scored there than any other stadium. The stadium makes good players great, but more importantly makes bad players solid, and solid players good. You can get good nights out of cheap opposing backups Catchers and it makes the Ben Paulsen's of the world look awesome. It is the true Joker of the DFS game. If you're not playing these guys, you're making a mistake. And when you don't they are going to be owned more than you want. I prefer playing games when the Rockies are on the road because you get truer outcomes. If I put together a good line with limited players from a game in Colorado, I will reduce my betting because the specter of Coors Field is not to be trifled with.
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