The Perils of Fan Duel

I could never get my footing in Fan Duel for baseball.

When I win there are two possible causes:

1. Either I picked the best pitcher of the night, or
2. I had 2 or more rather pedestrian hitters really go off.

When I lose it's the same reasons, but for my opponent's team.

Tonight was one such a night.  It's infuriating that there's basically no way to cash in a tournament unless you picked Johnny Cueto, or maybe Chris Sale.  Anyone else your simply done.  On other sites, you can a less than perfect pitcher or pitchers and still score well.  On Fan Duel, you're money is basically on the head of one guy at that one position.

Because the pricing for all hitters except the very top 1% is so lax, you can pretty easily field a competent team on Fan Duel, even if you blow basically a third your budget on one player.  Of course you have to have the David Peralta's and Cesar Hernandez's on your team have good games.

I played a functionally similar lineup on Fan Duel as Draft Kings.  Because of Positional Variance, I wasn't able to field both Chris Davis and Ryan Zimmerman there.  So I scored a respectable 46.75 points in the $2 game, which was good for no money.  Even if I had be able to play Zimmerman at Third the improvement of 5.25 points over Manny Machado, who have only taken be to the very edge of cashing.

I picked the best value pitcher on Fan Duel that night but without Johnny Cueto, I was nothing; My Draft Kings lineup was good for second place in the $2 tournament at $61.25 (as of writing this, but it may slip down to $15).

It's the pricing model at Fan Duel which is the source of this anguish.  They've developed a game with extraordinary importance on the pitcher, with very high pricing, and were force to temper it with the most lenient hitter pricing of any game out there.  I've often likened DFS to the lotto, but Fan Duel takes it a step to far: the top pitcher is your Powerball, required to win, and then if your numbers come up somewhat randomly, then you're a winning.

I might reconsider this tomorrow, but when you play the same bunch of guys and sweep every body on every site you play, and get shut out on Fan Duel, there is a problem that one would be foolish to ignore.  I'm probably going to move the bulk of my Fan Duel Cash to Yahoo. And wait out that site until football season.  I ask again: "How in the world can that website be the leader in DFS?"  It feels like asking "How in the world did we elect George W Bush twice?"

NASCAR on Draft Kings is a Brand New Game

There are times when I want to say that Draft Kings runs the best DFS site out there.  They have Great Software, they get the baseball game right, they have a special Section for beginners, and good customer service.  What stops me from ever giving this endorsement is that they have this one SERIOUS drawback.  As a matter of fact, this one problem on Draft Kings is 10 times more heinous than pretty much all of the other DFS website's quirks combined.

Draft Kings like to change the game around to maliciously screw with their paying customers.

I don't know why they do this: It's more subtle in baseball, they do odd things like decide arbitrarily to add SS eligibility to Tyler Saladino, who has played 1 career game at that position, while taking away eligibilities from guys like Chris Davis, Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, etc.  This subtly changes the game.  But I'm here to talk about Draft Kings screwing with Fantasy NASCAR.  What I saw when I went to check values in a preliminary look at this week's race in Pocono

Draft Kings decided to screw with the players of this game by changing the number of drivers from 5 to 6.

Note: these are not my picks; I wanted to see what kind of lineup I could make if I took Harvick & Busch.

Nothing subtle here.  No corresponding move up in dollars alloted for a lineup. Sure, there's significant adjustments in the Driver salaries. But that's just another difference you'll have to come to learn and understand.

It's a entirely different game Sunday than it was last Sunday.  DFS proponents like to liken the DFS game to Golf when talking about it as a game of skill.  This change Draft Kings instituted would be like take then total Yardage of Round of Golf at the Masters, keeping that constant, but dividing it out over 20 holes instead of 18. 

Well, anyway, you used to be able to field 5 drivers around an easily understandable average pivot point of 10K.  The new pivot is $8.333 on 6 drivers.  There are no drivers below that $8000 who Vegas feels has a better than 100 to 1 chance of winning.

Plus, with the extra car in your lineup, you chances of picking a driver who gets into a crash goes up 17%..

Draft Kings has also removed any scoring for Pass Differential, leaving only Place Differential as a place for scoring for drivers who aren't among the few who lead laps or have fastest laps.

Anyway, the focus of the NASCAR game has changed, here are some bullet points:

1. As the top driver almost always scores 100 points, whereas good drivers score in the 40-60 range, there is much more emphasis on picking the winner of the race than there was before.
2. Kevin Harvick is $3367 more expensive than the midpoint salary.  The cheapest Drivers (Timmy Hill & Travis Kvapil) are prices at $5600 only $2733 from the mean.  You draft Harvick, you have to pick two subpar drivers to balance.
3. The value plays for your sixth position are probably going to come from the last row of the starting lineup.  Learn to love the last row.  Cole Whitt has historically returned .294 FFP/per $100 of salary, good for 13th best per $100 just behind Martin Truex and ahead of Matt Kenseth.
4. Scores will probably be lower going forward.  Some will field a fleet of average racers, where a good day will probably be around 250 points (6 drivers at 42 points).  However, a stars and scrubs lineup will be necessary for tournaments because 100 points from one driver is like 2.5 good drivers.
5. You're lower end priced drivers will have there scoring point value almost exclusively determined by where they finish the race.  Lineup position will be a more critical factor for choosing drivers with salaries below $8000.  
6. You may want to field different lineups in tournaments versus head to heads, as in other DFS games.  Up to this point, this was kind of unnecessary.
7. This is only the first of many Draft Kings changes to NASCAR DFS, if past performance is any indication.  Don't get too comfortable going forward.

On the plus side, if you never played before, you can start this weekend because everybody is basically back to square one.

A Look at your Opponent's Cards

As I, and others, have noted, DFS is a lot like Poker.  One of the more important skills you develop from playing a lot of hands of cards is tangible feeling for what cards are held with other players hole cards.  You never know 100% for sure, just like you never really what batters or pitchers another player has in his lineup.  But without this skill, there is no way to wager effectively in Poker, which is just as true in DFS.

You need to be aware of what could be in the other teams lineups.

Sure, it's a complete unknown, but any player you would consider playing has a likelihood of popping up in other lineups (and what it's like facing).

• Big Dollar Stud Pitchers 

I've called this the "Clayton Kershaw" effect, but whenever a pitcher like him takes the mound you know there will be a lot of lineups with these guys in it.  You know it because you tried to field a lineup with a $13,200 Chris Sale on Draft Kings,or a $12,500 Max Scherzer on Fan Duel.  In poker, most people only bet the good hands, and fielding a Kershaw, Sale, or Scherzer means the hand is starting off pretty darn strong.  On "Clayton Kershaw" days, I tend to limit my dollars bet and look more toward triple ups or better because: (1) If I play him, I tend to not love the roster I put together,or (2) If I don't play him, I don't want to take the chance that he goes off along with some unpredictable cheap hitters on that guys team.  It's the way you bet when you have a good feel that someone's holding a high pair: stay in if it's cheap enough, don't call a pricey bet, and look for excellent pot ratios to stay in the game.

• Big Dollar Stud Hitters  

Mike Trout is super dangerous.  Bryce Harper is super dangerous.  Paul Goldschmidt is super dangerous.  There's a secondary tier of these guys, but these are the big three.  Whenever you're in after the opening bet in a game of cards, you just know that someone is holding some face cards, more often than not an Ace. It's not bad strategy to occasionally play a lesser hand in the hopes of a favorable flop, because they are not just possible, but more likely than you think.  But you have to bet knowing the real possibility of their existence.  In DFS terms, this doesn't stop you from betting all the money you want to bet, but it shifts me toward 50/50's, if I don't choose to field them.  

• Anybody who is underpriced 

Occasionally, the sites just miss the mark on the value of a player.  Normally, it occurs when a player inherits a starting job due to injury, or moves up the batting order, or some other shake up on their baseball team.  Just this week, the Troy Tulowitski trade to Toronto dropped his price to under $4000 on Draft Kings.  A numerical algorithm can't predict what a new venue will do for a player.  These guys are all good gambles for the price, and they should make up a large percentage of your roster.  For the price, the possible returns with a good flop can't be dismissed.  If you hold a pair of 9's, a single nine on the flop is a harbinger of a good payout.

• Anybody Dirt Cheap.

Because everybody is trying to roster the highest dollar pitchers and hitters, the guys at or very near the bottom of the cost structure (Draft Kings $2800-$2000, Fan Duel $2500-$2200, Yahoo $7-$10).  In poker, you are never going to put money on these bad hands, but in DFS it's like taking a Deuce to guarantee your self an Ace.  If rostering Carlos Sanchez allows me to get at Clayton Kershaw, sign me up. So these schlubs are scattered throughout lineups played.  If the flop comes, 7-7-2, they are going to take your money.  If a $2200 Melvin Upton Jr homers and steals a base, you just chalk it up to bad luck.  It won't happen too often, but happens enough that it's something you need to be aware of.

• Anybody Playing in Coors Field

When a game is being held in Denver, you take notice.  More runs are scored there than any other stadium.  The stadium makes good players great, but more importantly makes bad players solid, and solid players good.  You can get good nights out of cheap opposing backups Catchers and it makes the Ben Paulsen's of the world look awesome.  It is the true Joker of the DFS game.  If you're not playing these guys, you're making a mistake.  And when you don't they are going to be owned more than you want.  I prefer playing games when the Rockies are on the road because you get truer outcomes.  If I put together a good line with limited players from a game in Colorado, I will reduce my betting because the specter of Coors Field is not to be trifled with.

Ranking the DFS Sites by Popularity

In my last post, I basically ranted about my displeasure with Fan Duel and their daily baseball game.  I posed the question, "How do they keep winning awards?" with a clearly inferior baseball product.  Having access to the internet, I decided to google the question.  I stumbled across a listing for the Alexa rankings for each of the DFS sites.  The article tabulated the data for each site in December, right at the peak of Football Season,  With a few handy taps on my keyboard I was able to recreate that list for today, smack dab in the middle of the baseball season.  Yahoo isn't in the mix, partly because it didn't exist back in December, but partly because it doesn't parse out Yahoo DFS from Yahoo proper, but for reference Yahoo is the 5th most visited website today.

US Alexa Ranking	December 2014	July 2015	Change
Fan Duel	274	1716	-1442
Draft Kings	668	1789	-1121
Victiv	14477	46388	-31911
Fantasy Aces	37718	52524	-14806
Draft Day	17779	67845	-50066
Fantasy Feud	67868	98546	-30678
Fantasy Score	60703	197433	-136730

Fan Duel
I love a good statistical table and the trends it can reveal.  Fan Duel's 274 ranking during Football Season is formidable.  And something that should be noted.  I mused that maybe their DFS Football is awesome.  Well, if people flocking to the site is any indication, and it probably is, their Football game is something I deeply look forward to playing come September.  Let this serve as a public apology to the good folks at Fan Duel for any thing I may have done to offend.

Draft Kings
During baseball season, second place Draft Kings basically runs neck-and-neck with the market leader Fan Duel.  I think this means that the typical DFS player knows what I generally have hinted at elsewhere on this site.  Draft Kings lays out a really good product for DFS baseball, arguably the best out there.  The 668 ranking during Football Season shows strong performance and hints at what I perceive to be the Draft Kings strategy:  To be strong across the board at all games.  As they have rolled out sports like Soccer, NASCAR, and Golf into the DFS world, all with very playable systems, I think this assumption is accurate.

Football Numbers vs. Baseball Numbers
The huge dropoffs for DFS baseball versus DFS football, may make me rethink my opinion on the importance of longer year long sports like Baseball and Basketball.  When Fan Duel jumps from 1716 to 274, it does not translate to 6.25x as many hits, but a number far greater.  And the drop off for baseball is pretty staggering across the board.  If this DFS football boost brings 10x the players to your site in the fall, then a 17 game season plays out function like a 170 game season.  In other words Football is probably more important than Baseball within the DFS universe.  Fan Duel's strategy of focusing on the Football Marketplace may not be visionary, but certainly is sound.

There's more to be gleaned here, but these the big ideas.

So who has the best DFS site out there?  I am reminded of a similar question I was asked a decade ago.  As a whiskey drinker, I was asked do you prefer Bourbon or Scotch?  Both of them being separate apexes in the domain of dark spirits, I was perplexed.  I finally answered, "I love them both, and I find myself more drinking Bourbon in the Summer and more Scotch in winter, as it just seems right to do it that way."  I don't know yet, but maybe Draft Kings is my Summer Love, and Fan Duel rules my Winters.  And maybe it will just seem right to do it that way.  And maybe my dabbling into other sites is my occasional romance with Tequila or Rum or Irish Whiskey.  I don't know how Yahoo fits this metaphor, It may very well be the more universally loved Beer & Wine of DFS.

Mucking DFS style

I play around sometimes with analogies, and one that most people think of, when it comes to DFS, is
playing poker.  I think this one is too spot on and important to dismiss with a whimsical half joke/half rant like I do with the others.

Both are considered games of skill, but there are different amounts of skill between the two.  One of the most important items to learn when endeavoring to try to play poker at any meaningful level is the knowledge of what hands not to play.  Reflexively, you want to play as many poker hands as possible, because that's where the money is, but educated play says there are times when the first two cards you're dealt in a game of Hold 'Em dictates you simply chuck in your cards.

But how do you know when to muck your cards in DFS? 

In Texas Hold 'Em Poker, one can categorize the first two cards into three groups: One's you should not play, One's you should play, and One's you might play.  In DFS, you set your opening hand called your lineup and when your done, if you can really be objective, the three categories apply just as well.

• One's You Shouldn't Play

Because the DFS game is a product of your mind against the Salary Cap, you really aren't at the same whims as you would be versus a randomly shuffled deck of cards.  One can easily note that the mathematically worst hand to start win in Hold 'em is the 7-2 off suit.  There is no such easy answer to the worst lineup in Daily Games.  In reality, this particular situation should rarely come up.  Primarily because your work and skill in picking a lineup ought to propel you, at least, into the next category.  Additionally, because of the highly random nature of the baseball game taken within a single game sample, a team full of relative useless players could have a great night, but that might be like say you could hold a 7-2 and the flop come 7-7-2.  Regardless, the most important idea to garner from looking at the "One's you shouldn't play" category, is that if you really don't like the team you put together, and you can't seem to fix it by changing the roster, you probably ought to "muck" the night.  You might think something like, "All the pitchers stink tonight, but that means the players I'm matched with are going to be fielding crappy pitchers too."  Stop yourself here.  In those instances, and they do happen, you are turning off the portion of DFS that requires skill and embracing fully the luck part of the game.  In Hold 'em, it would be like saying,"I've got a 4-9, but maybe he's got a 2-8." You could be that lucky, but the smart move is to keep your money out of the pot.

• One's You Might Play

Most nights your lineups are going to fit into this category.  You analysis and lineup acumen ought to bring you this far.  You are rarely going to start your night with a pair of Kings or a A-K.  Most nights you are going to say, "If this happens, this lineup should rock."  As in, "If they beat the over in Colorado, I'm going to rack up points."  Or, "If this pitcher pitches like his last two games and not the three before, my team will be solid."  Each night you are dealing yourself hands which resemble something like a pair of 3s, or on the better nights, a suited J-10.  If thing break your way, you are going to be fine.  In Hold 'em, the flop comes and your mental hypotheticals are answered and the skillful player knows what he must do next.  You get no such luxury in DFS.  What a good player needs to do is examine his hypotheticals closely.  You might feel good about counting on Paul Goldschmidt to carry your offense, but less so with a Kendrys Morales or Adam Lind.  If you seriously question your hypotheticals, you might want to adjust your betting strategy for the night.  I'm not say don't bet in these situations.  Following that mantra would mean you'd be playing about one night every 2-3 weeks.  But what you can do on days your not as confident in your predictions, is minimize the amount of your bets, or number of bets you make.  Better yet, you can shift into games that have better payouts like 3 team winner take alls, or leagues,or tournaments.  If you come to understand that your lineup's risk is better than average, the smart money says your return should be better than average.  Shoot for $2.70 on a dollar versus the common $1.80 from Head to Head's. 

• One's You Should Play

The only time you are going to be 100% certain that a lineup should play is the next morning after you check it's boxscores.  There will be days when you sat out and regret it.  However, there will be more days where you regret playings.  The random nature of baseball within a single game sample makes it impossible to predict what will happen exactly in a given day.  So you can look at your wonderful lineup that you love for hours and it won't tell you a single thing.  Probably 90% of all lineups ever fielded fall into the "might" category.  There is one indicator I've noticed that more often than not let's you know your roster is of the "Should Play" variety:  If you can honestly say to yourself, you got the one guy you really wanted at each and every position with money left over.  If you never had to compromise your team for the sake of the salary cap, you ought to play it and maybe play it a little harder.  Possibly up the number of games or money wagered.  These are the rare days you are dealt a pair of Tensor or a suited K-Q. You must be aware that the flop could come A-8-7, and you likely moved from best hand to second best hand at the table.  You knew there was a high likelihood that players in the game held a single single card that could sink you.  In DFS, you should probably fix your gaze at high number of player 50/50's or Triple Ups.  Because you know there could be Aces floating out there somewhere like a two homer night out of Mike Zunino or what a cheap Shin-Soo Choo did last night.  As the nature of the DFS game is more mercurial than we might like, you can insulate yourself by avoiding the Aces held in Head to Head games.

Daily Fantasy is Like...(2)

Sifting through a Stack of Resumes...

You need to hire someone and you have a huge stack of applicant resumes because the economy

hasn't been so good lately.  You narrow it down to a handful.  One applicant comes from the right college.  Another comes with stellar recommendations.  And yet another set all sorts of production records at his last place of employment.

You pick one.  You come up with all sorts of reasons and rationalizations, but you pick one.

And your next project comes in late and overbudget.  And your company doesn't meet it's quarterly sales goals.  And the guy at the burger joint can comprehend the idea of "Hold the Mayo."  And there's an error on your mobile bill it takes two hours to resolve on the phone.  And your pharmacist gives you the right number of Lipitor pills, but the wrong dose.  And the news show you watch on TV doesn't fact check it's story.   And you voted for the most qualified candidate.  And... And...

And you weep to yourself quietly because you know that we are a nation built on interpreting and misinterpreting resumes.

And you know, in your heart, that there was a better answer in the pile of resumes that you probably didn't even consider for a minute...

Maybe you should have started Cesar Hernandez over Howie Kendrick...

Daily Fantasy is like...(1)

Playing a game of Three Card Monte...

You're looking for the Queen, the guy you think will score 20+ points, you saw him yesterday or last time he faced a soft tossing lefty. And you think you were able to following him through the flips and flops of harsh weather and lineup changes, but because you're focused and determined, and so you choose the card you want: and more often than not it's the 2 of spades.

Or you just figure you got a one in three chance of finding the Queen so, you just grab one and hope for the best, picking wrong most of the time, but once in a while, you find that $3200 guy who gets three hits and a home run.  Hello, Queen.

And all the while, the guy running the cards, holds the answers, and always wins in the end.