Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

8.10.2015

The Perils of Fan Duel

I could never get my footing in Fan Duel for baseball.

When I win there are two possible causes:
  1. Either I picked the best pitcher of the night, or
  2. I had 2 or more rather pedestrian hitters really go off.
When I lose it's the same reasons, but for my opponent's team.

Tonight was one such a night.  It's infuriating that there's basically no way to cash in a tournament unless you picked Johnny Cueto, or maybe Chris Sale.  Anyone else your simply done.  On other sites, you can a less than perfect pitcher or pitchers and still score well.  On Fan Duel, you're money is basically on the head of one guy at that one position.

Because the pricing for all hitters except the very top 1% is so lax, you can pretty easily field a competent team on Fan Duel, even if you blow basically a third your budget on one player.  Of course you have to have the David Peralta's and Cesar Hernandez's on your team have good games.

I played a functionally similar lineup on Fan Duel as Draft Kings.  Because of Positional Variance, I wasn't able to field both Chris Davis and Ryan Zimmerman there.  So I scored a respectable 46.75 points in the $2 game, which was good for no money.  Even if I had be able to play Zimmerman at Third the improvement of 5.25 points over Manny Machado, who have only taken be to the very edge of cashing.

I picked the best value pitcher on Fan Duel that night but without Johnny Cueto, I was nothing; My Draft Kings lineup was good for second place in the $2 tournament at $61.25 (as of writing this, but it may slip down to $15).

It's the pricing model at Fan Duel which is the source of this anguish.  They've developed a game with extraordinary importance on the pitcher, with very high pricing, and were force to temper it with the most lenient hitter pricing of any game out there.  I've often likened DFS to the lotto, but Fan Duel takes it a step to far: the top pitcher is your Powerball, required to win, and then if your numbers come up somewhat randomly, then you're a winning.

I might reconsider this tomorrow, but when you play the same bunch of guys and sweep every body on every site you play, and get shut out on Fan Duel, there is a problem that one would be foolish to ignore.  I'm probably going to move the bulk of my Fan Duel Cash to Yahoo. And wait out that site until football season.  I ask again: "How in the world can that website be the leader in DFS?"  It feels like asking "How in the world did we elect George W Bush twice?"





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