You Are Going to Lose: But There's Hope

Happy May Day everybody.

A fitting salutation today because (a) it's the First of May, (b) after last night's debacle, many of us need to be reminded to be happy, and (c) Mayday is the international signal for distress, which Chris Sale put all of us through yesterday.

I'm sure I was not alone.  Was there any more of a sure thing than Superstar Chris Sale was going to put away the lowly twins in a style befitting a $10K+ price tag?  I could say that the lesson learned was that there are no sure things in this game, but that would be too simplistic.  I could go into detail about how, a negative outing from a pitcher, especially a high priced one dooms your team from any hopes of achieving even mediocrity.  But the best thing to do is what all great pitchers do when they give up a home run: Shake it off, Forget it, and give the next batter your best pitch.

A more interesting, and certainly more uplifting, item became apparent during the activities on Draft Kings last night.

Last night, the good folks at Draft Kings offered a free roll to win a trip to see the Manny Pacquiao -Floyd Mayweather fight.  It cost nothing to join, and you could have won a deluxe prize package worth $3500.  Who wouldn't take a flyer on that?  I did and finished in 16,247th place.  The guy who won played high cost pitcher Stephen Strasburg, took a flyer on James Paxton versus the strikeout happy Houston Astros, and staked his batting lineup on the Twins rocking Chris Sale's world.  Good for him, and Congratulations.

With a finish of 16,247th place, with my worst lineup card score ever of 43.95 points, I was curious as to who, and how many folks could have possibly scored lower than me. The answer is 2,695. That's it. More people are killed each year in Hippopotamus Attacks than I outscored last night.  It's enough to make you give up, however,

1. I actually beat four different people in Head to Head games, with one poor soul scoring a whopping 24.3 points.  I certainly was not alone.
2. The Fight Package was a free game with only 18,942 participants.

The second part brought me hope.  I expect nearly everybody on the site took a shot at this game.  Why wouldn't they?  And Draft Kings is the second largest site for Daily Fantasy Sports, growing to this size by acquiring two smaller competitors Draftstreet and Starstreet.  And let's say, some folks weren't playing and that Fan Duel (The largest DFS website) has twice the participants, that means that less than 100,000 people play DFS today.

And then consider these two facts

1. 33.5 million people play fantasy sports (and that number is growing).
2. There are an estimated 500 million baseball fans world wide.

This means that we didn't come to the game late.  We're still on, or at least very near the ground floor.  And just like today, when it appears we are just handing money over to the more experienced players, somewhere down the line, the time and effort we put in today will prepare us for the nearly unlimited supply of new folks coming to hand us their money.  There's millions of them on the horizon with open wallets.

That's the lesson, the future for all of us is brighter than we think.

GPP (sic) Lineups

Generally, there are two types of games available on Daily Fantasy sites.  They are normally referred to as GPP and Cash Games.  It is important to note that the lineup strategy differs in each of these games.

I don't like the term "GPP" used in DFS to refer to tournament style contests where you play a lot of people for higher rewards.  GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool, which covers many of these games, but many of the 50/50 games carry the same designation.  Also, many of the non-guaranteed games, like 10 man leagues or just about any winner take all format, should employ similar tactics. Cash games, on the other hand, cover H2H and 50/50's, and this moniker is also a little problematic, as virtually all games are awarded cash prizes (besides special prize games and steps).  The confusing terminology is probably one of the myriad ways the people in the know about DFS try to obfuscate the game to make it harder on new players.  I also think Triple Ups and 3-5 man leagues are sort of a hybrid between the two, and should be addressed by a blended approach.  The divisions are completely based on odds of winning considering the match a completely random occurrence.

If you remove the skill of lineup selection from the game, your odds of winning are (I've included the phrases I like to use to help understand my writing in other articles):

My Terminology	Type of Game	Approx Odds	Odds as Percent
Head to Head	Cash	1 in 2	50%
Hybrid	"Leagues?"	1 in 3-5	33%
Tournament	GPP	20 in 100	20%

Of course this doesn't take into consideration player skill, and some Double ups & Triple Ups add a few more entrants to make it a a true triple up (not $1 to win $1.80, but $1 to win $2) which decreases the raw odds by a small, but noticeable amount.  And, in tournaments, the percent of winners fluctuates depending upon the game, but 20% is a solid rough approximation.  Your skill is, of course, a very important factor to attempt to skew these odds in your favor.

Anyway, I heard a "pro" DFS player named David Epstein (BW5126-not the World Series MVP), who almost exclusively plays Tournaments on the Rotogrinders Daily Podcast earlier this week.  He recently won $100K in a baseball tournament. I'm not saying I learned everything I need to know from the 20 minute discussion, but my basic interpretation of his process looks like this:

• He starts, as all do, by pitcher selection
• He targets 6 of the 8 batter selections with specific players
• He then selects the remaining 2 based on best available, and can play upward of 20 variations rotating the last two slots on a significant number of scorecards.

I wanted to note this because I'm am going to play a few more tournaments going forward to try to understand this part of the DFS universe.  I'll be showing more frequent losses and, hopefully, higher payouts when I win.  The advice from David Epstein, I believe, is a good starting point.  Thankfully, Draft Kings runs a daily tournament called Quarter Arcade, which costs what you think it does, that makes testing ideas possible without punishing your bankroll.  There are also games at very affordable $1, $2, $3 & $5 price points.

Different Price Points Bring Different Competition

Took a real bath tonight.  Nothing like a real blow to your bankroll to teach some real lessons.

Quick Notes:

Reinforcing last night's thoughts on pitching, in the game between the Astros & Padres, Dallas Keuchel outpitched Andrew Cashner everywhere in the known universe except for in DFS.  If Pitching is King in Daily Fantasy Baseball, the authority to rule comes from three important sources: Strikeouts, Strikeout, & Strikeouts.

Miguel Cabrera scored 37 points tonight after taking a 0 the night before.  This goes to show that annyone can have a awful night on any given night, even the superstars, but also they are the best
(and most expensive) for a reason.  It also highlights the role luck plays in this game.

But the big story of the night is one of those issues, they never talk about in any article or any podcast: who you play. One has myriad choices in what style of game to play: number of opponents, games used, etc.  But a choice that is overlooked is how to find the weakest opponent.  Now, I am playing a lot more games than I should because I'm testing theories and even sometimes seeking out the big time players to see how they construct their lineup, so I don't really fret daily losses, but tonight I encountered my worst loss to date as you can see by the scorecard at the bottom of this post.

Part of the losses is on me, I had $14 over two lineup cards that believed in a bounce back from Shane Greene, which didn't come.  And one of my lineup cards had $8 all in large player pool tournaments, with no offsetting more winnable games (a strict random occurrence says you will lose 50% of H2H games, but roughly 4 out of 5 tournament games).

But the bigger problem is the opponents I faced.

I went to bed thinking I lost about $25 on Tuesday to find out some post 1 AM heroics brought me even for the day.  Since I had already prepared myself to lose the money, I figured it was as good as time as any to move up from $1 & $2 games to $5 games.  The four H2H games were all losses, three of them vs. players who just by watching the boards one can see are leveraging at least a few hundred bucks each and every night.  So either they know what they are doing or are just pushing money out into the ether.  I'd bet on the latter and I'm sure they know more than me. For what it's worth, the worst loss was by 11 points and the other three were between 3-5.35 points, So at least I'm a decent opponent.  This allowed me to make back $9 in the 50/50, which brings me to the lesson of the day.

It might be rather obvious, but the higher the dollar amount at play, the tougher the competition.

I'm sorry if this is something we all should just know.  But I thought I knew it, and still ran the night as if I didn't.  I even made the mistake of setting the maximum times one opponent could play me button to 2, which made the closest loss actually 10 bucks.  This is a holdover from $1 games, where I really don't care whether I wager 1 or 2 dollars, I find it easier than setting up a row of $1 dollar contests and another of $2 contests.  Many of the big fish shy away from the smallest dollar games deeming them too trivial for their interest, but they attract a lesser experienced opponent.  I would bet that most first time players enter $1 games first; I know I did.

Which brings us back to the dreadfully obvious point: Cheaper games bring more varied and often less skilled opponents; more expensive games just the opposite.

I'm not going to give up on moving up the ladder, and considering that one more hit or picking an decent pitcher the outcome could have been $45 dollars in my pocket.  I'll attempt it again later.  When I first deposited my original $100, I lost more than I won for pretty much a week dropping as low as $77.35 before finding a process that worked.

So I suggest that if you are just starting and want to throw 10 bucks down in Head to Head games, play 5 $2 matches rather than 1 $10 match.  I assure you, it will make for a less painful initial experience.  It's better for you to win a little or at least mitigate the losses by getting a portion of your outlay back, even if you only beat one opponent.  And if you notice, it's what all the serious players do, racking up dozens and dozens of separate challenges.

And if you lose remember: some of the best lessons cost the most.

Strikeouts Make the Pitcher

I was so close to having one of the worst days I've ever had on the site.  I had spent a lot on several lineups on Miguel Cabrera, who took an 0-fer vs. the incredible Mike Pelfrey.  And a day after, a bunch of folks got hosed on various DFS sites by starting players in the cancelled Orioles-Red Sox game, I started a player who wasn't in the lineup for his team, and went out for the night.  Thankfully, that player was Jake Marisnick who came in as a pinch hitter in the 7th and miraculously got three at-bats, hitting a triple and a double with one RBI for a very solid 15 points on Draft Kings.  A nice reminder that there is a great deal of luck to this game, but that's not much of a lesson.

I learned something over the past two days about pitching watching the Astros-Padres games and watching my players and those of my opponents.  It seems that what makes a good pitching outing in real baseball doesn't exactly translate to Daily Fantasy Baseball.

I'm on board as a believer in what is going on in Houston this year.  That is a good baseball team, and I stayed away from the Padres pitching because I thought Houston could hit.  And I was dead on with the prediction as the Houston Astros put up some high quality crooked numbers with 9 on Monday and 14 on Tuesday.  I understand that a great deal of this scoring came not against the starting pitchers, who we use in DFS, but the San Diego bullpen.  But the starting lines the last two nights were run of the mill to poor by real baseball standards:

Tyson Ross numbers: 5IP  5H 2BB  4R  4ER  9K  1HR  1.40WHIP  7.20ERA

Pretty bad by general standards, and exactly what you need to do as a pitcher to set your team up with a loss.  But on Draft Kings that was worth 16.45 points.  Not a stellar number, but a very solid pitching outcome.  Good enough to keep you in games, provided the other team doesn't field a phenomenal pitcher and your hitters back you up.  On any given day, if you look at the probable pitchers, more than half of them will be averaging less than 16.45.  Tomorrow, for instance 11 starters are averaging above and 19 are below that number.  A solid DFS outing can easily result from a shaky Major League outing.

James Shields number the day before were better but not exactly good.  It looks a little better on paper because the two runs he allowed in the 5th inning were marked as unearned.  The rule book favors Mr. Shields but the eye tells a different story.  The error came when the San Diego shortstop mishandled a throw on a Jake Marisnick stolen base attempt.  I don't understand why you can't get an error on the second half of a double play, which are completed routinely, while you can assume the out on a stole base attempt, when the absolute best catchers struggle to throw out 1 out of 4.  Shields allowed a ground rule double to the next batter. And a line drive base hit to the following, which means that Marisnick would have scored had he never attempted the stole base.  The error was a gift to Big Game James. Who knows maybe MLB will correct this later*.

James Shields Numbers:6IP  6H  1BB  3R  1ER*  1HR  12K  1.17WHIP  1.33ERA (4.50*)

Ok, the scoring error aside, this is a pretty good game: Quality Start material that should leave your team with a least the possibility of winning.  Not stellar, just good.  However, James Shields was one of the two best pitchers on Draft Kings that night with a whopping 31.45 pts.  That is spectacular, not just good.  The scoring system on DFS sites are skewed significantly from the real world baseball game.

What's the catch? What's the thing you need to know?  The big thing that both these pitchers did right (or maybe Astros batters did wrong) was strikeout a very good number.  That's the key lesson here: if you can guess what pitcher is going to accumulate 10K's, then even if he pitches poorly, you'll have a decent outing like Mr. Ross.  If he shows up just reasonably well in the other aspects of his pitching performance, you'll get a fantastic outing like Mr. Shields.  If he actually pitches well in the game, then you've just hit the Jackpot.

A Day of Daily Fantasy Baseball is more than a Day of Baseball

Whew, glad to survive the day's game,  Nearly took a huge loss on the day.  I had my worst & second worst contest totals on two lineup cards last night (48.2 & 54.1).

I could say that the greatest lesson is about how it's rare a single player can win a game for you, but it's overwhelmingly evident that a single pitcher can sink you on his own.  I carried Jimmy Nelson, who was off to a strong start to the season, but gave up 7 runs and didn't even make it out of the second inning (-11.35 total).

Or how the violent happenings in Baltimore, make it so imperative that you make every effort to double check your games before they start to make sure that Rain or other factors don't turn your key player into a zero on your scorecard.  There's a wonderful irony that the main culprit was that 3B/OF on the Orioles who shall not be named who made my life hell this weekend.  I finally give in and play the guy, and the entire city explodes.

But the biggest lesson here is that you shouldn't look at the day of baseball as a single day of DFS.  Four of the matchup choices on Draft Kings have zero overlap (Early, Turbo, Late and Later).  So each one should be treated as a single day from the player's perspective.

As I mentioned, my ALL DAY lineup was torpedoed (OW 6L -$14), as well as my EARLY card (2W 6L -$4.80) by a single really awful pitcher outing.  But I came back enough in the later games to make the losses for the day bearable.

Now, I'm not saying that when you're behind you should double down in hopes to make up your losses.  This is almost never a good idea.  The best advice usually tells you to walk away and live to fight another day.  And that's what DFS allows you to do, if you have the capacity and the will.  I looked at the sunk roster card, mentally marked them as losses, took a deep breath, and played the night games with a fresh mindset.  Kind of like you got to do any day you take a hit.  I didn't buy the same series of players. I didn't try to avoid players on competitor's cards to make all the games mesh into one fantasy game when everything works out for me.  I didn't enter a bunch of tournament games hoping to make one really big score to make up the losses.  I attacked every game, the same way one should always do by trying to field the best roster one can for the money allowed.  I didn't change my betting tactics.  I did the things that have worked well for me thus far. I took on the night with a clean slate, and finished down 5 bucks instead of nearly $20.

With this understanding, I still wanted to mention how important pitching is.

One Thing to Watch Out For

What is there to make of yesterday's games?

The biggest event was the Baltimore Orioles scoring 18 runs.  It played a big factor in me losing a game I scored a lot of points in (I played one Oriole Adam Jones, who wasn't one of the cheaper guys who don't get a lot of starts). I posted a screenshot of this contest yesterday.

But the lesson is that among the many minefields (things that are out there that you could accidentally step on to explode your day) in DFS is the one MLB team (or game) exploding for a huge run total.  It doesn't happen too often in the post-steroid baseball world, but it does happen.  I think it's important to remember that when you lose these in these types of games, you shouldn't get too down on yourself.  It's just a tough day, shake it off, and get back into the batter's box for the next contest.

That being said, it wasn't like the Orioles/Red Sox thing was completely out of the blue (sure 18 runs is a crazy total).  However, both teams have lineups than can hit.  After the SF/COL game was called, it became the game with the highest Over/Under line in Vegas.  And both pitchers (Bud Norris, Wade Miley) entered the game with ERA's higher than a run per inning.  I should chastise myself a bit for not taking advantage of this game.  The minor lesson is one should not just hope to avoid these blowout games, but make efforts to attempt to predict where they might occur and endeavor to be on the receiving side of all those runs should they occur.

Probably not going to happen too often, but it is important to be aware of this possibility.

A Hard Luck Loss

The idea is to pick a great team, but that doesn't always mean you're going to win.  I played this team in 5 contests and this one guy kept me from sweeping the card.  Not a complaint, I respect the strategy of the other guy.  And you've got to watch out for the teams that score 18 runs in a game like the Orioles did today. (Notice Jimmy Paredes laughing at me in his out field, of course I'm the 154.25 side)

Errors in Valuations

A truly tough day yesterday, I had two pitchers (Adam Wainwright, Trevor May) come out of games due to injury prematurely: there is no way to predict that.  But that's not the most important lesson.  My most expensive lineup of the night taught me something bigger.

Every match you play, you are pitting your mind and knowledge against one more opponent than is listed.  The Contest might show you facing off vs. Lollipop237 or some other name, but there's another brain lurking in the background to which your gauntlet is thrown:  the unnamed person or persons who value the players for the site you play on.

Basically every day, when you look at the Auction Price, you have to be thinking, where did they get the pricing wrong?  Kind of like in a season long fantasy draft where you say, how does Yahoo rank Melky Cabrera at 157, he's easily a top 100 player or how can they have 5 2B's rated ahead of Dee Gordon, Cano or Altuve OK, but Kipnis? Dozier?  Each day in Daily Fantasy you need to look for where the game's evaluators might have got it wrong.  And take advantage of it, because it frees up extra money to get more and better players elsewhere.

I looked at him.  I knew who he was.  And at the last minute, I swapped him out for Matt Carpenter at 3B.  For some strange reason, Draft Kings valued, the hot hitting DH, 3B, & OF Jimmy Paredes at the absolute minimum price of $2000.  I passed on him because when I saw Andrew Susac was starting at Catcher for the Giants, the swap from Buster Posey to Susac freed up enough money that I could afford one more high cost, but really good player.  I swapped out my Third Basemen.  Where could I go wrong?  The one place I didn't consider.

In my largest-slate night game lineup, where I put the most cash ($16.25) at risk, I didn't realize that every lineup I was going to play would be sporting the Paredes Anomaly.  I took a bath on this card, winning only 2 of 10 contests, for a personal single card record loss of $9.05.  Everyone else took advantage of the Draft Kings Valuators errors but me, and Paredes scored 29 points against me, Carpenter was solid with 10 pts, but if I kept Paredes a 9 buck loss would have been a $15+ gain (I knocked out 107.75 points with out him).  To be completely honest, I probably would have taken Dustin Pedroia at second base, which would have cost me 2 pts there.

The moral of the story is: you should look for valuation mistakes in the system.  They are often there, and when you find one, especially one that's had a shelf life of a couple of days, you should play it, and if you don't, you should know that others will be playing it against you.

Draft Kings admitted their mistake this morning by increasing Paredes' cost by a whopping 80%, going from $2,000 to $3,600.  That's a big error.

Sitting Out A Hand

The four things you got to know when Gambling, as relayed by Kenny Rogers in "The Gambler," are:

     1. When to hold em
     2. When to fold em
     3. When to walk away
     4. When to run.

Today, I'm walking away from the early games.  It's a big decision for me because I'm trying to build a process for winning, which is part of why I created this website.  And a system should work in virtually any environment.  I've played every possible contest since the start of the season until now.

But one thing you need to avoid is the fellow you bought not playing.  Whether it be a benching, a suspension, or, as in today's case, weather, a baseball player who doesn't play a game is definitely going to hurt you.

And with the KC/CHW, already called off, and the real chance of Delay or Postponement of the CHC/CIN tilt, there's really only one early game on the docket.  It means I'm going to have to live this Saturday without Rajai Davis or Miguel Cabrera, but so be it.  I don't know how I could pass on Jake Arrieta pitching today against the Reds, but I'd hate to pay for him, see a 75 minute rain delay in the third and watch Joe Maddon trot out Edwin Jackson after the delay.  At the price, you'd need to pay you really want more than 3 innings of production.  And I don't want to draft around that game and face Arrieta's 7 strong innings because the rain held off.  The idea is to eliminate the strong variances that are avoidable, and I think this one is.

This means that two of the starting pitchers I was giving strong consideration to are off the table (Volquez, Arrieta).  This puts me behind in my confidence in my daily lineups for the day.

I've also had three of my four bad days (losses of $10+) occur on weekend games.  It's enough to make me pause, not stop, but pause, to reflect on what the issue is.  My hunch is that the weekends are busier than weekdays, and thus there are more players.  More players bring more variability in the lineups, meaning a greater chance that you might face someone who picks a strange player who has a monster game.  Nearly no one was playing Zack Cozart on his big day this week.  I certainly wasn't and am grateful for that.

Pitching is Crucial

Unless you truly never heard anyone speak about Daily Fantasy Baseball, you have probably heard someone say "Pitching is so important" to DFS.

It is worth repeating: Pitching is so important to DFS.

But there's a corollary I learned tonight in one of my lineups. There are a very small handful of elite pitchers, who can pretty much beat you on their own.  It's a short list and I don't know for certain every member of this elite list, but tonight one member of that group decided to teach me a lesson tonight.

Thank you for that Felix Hernandez

Have I mentioned that Pitching is so important to DFS?

Anyway, if you are not going to pay up to grab a guy like Felix Hernandez, you better have compelling reason.  It doesn't matter that he's been a little nicked up.  It doesn't matter that the lowly Twins have a lifetime .326 batting average against him.  It doesn't matter that he cost $11,300 dollars.  When he's on, you better have him.  And because he's on more often than not, you better just suck it up and buy him.  Last night he put up a complete game shut out with 9 K's, worth a whopping 44.25 points.  That's like a Mike Trout, a Nelson Cruz, with a topping of Jose Abreu.

Note: Draft Kings gives a 2.5 bonus for a complete game, and another 2.5 bonus for a shutout, on top of the 4 points for the win.  There's an additional 5 points for a no hitter, which thankfully Mr Hernandez didn't get.

Have I mentioned that Pitching is so important to DFS?

In H2H games, if you don't select Felix Hernandez, or others of his ilk, you can rest assured that they will be on a lot of lineups you're facing that evening.  And it's going to be gut wrenching the whole time They're on the mound.  You really have to ask yourself, "Did I really have to have Neil Walker at 2B, couldn't I have lived with Johnny Giavotella there?"  Don't get me wrong.  I picked really nice pitchers on the two lineups I faced Mr. Hernandez in: Scott Kazmir & Gerrit Cole on one and Carlos Martinez & Cole on the other.  And they fantastic jobs, but together only beat Mr. Hernandez by about 10 points.  And I used a bit of the extra cash to buy the likes of Martin Prado (My one big regret).  That's the lesson, don't pass on the stud pitcher for a meh Hitter; do it only for the sure things and there aren't too many of them.

That's because Pitching is so important to DFS

Anyway, when I started writing this it looked like Mr. Hernandez was going to be responsible for nabbing $11 bucks out of my pocket.  But then David Freese Homered and it might be only $3 or less with a little luck.

Even with the discounted loss, the moral is not lost.  When you avoid the top tier Pitchers you must account for the fact that they are floating out there, waiting to take you on.  And because they are elite, you will see them on a lot of rosters you face.  It might just be easier to nab him, and fight it out with the remaining players.

Felix Hernandez, I thank you for this valuable lesson.

Daily Fantasy is two different games

Maybe three. Let me explain.

I started my account with Draft Kings about a year before I deposited any money.  I think a lot of people do this.  They offer free accounts and at least one free daily tournament in each sport covered. So I opened my account and picked a football team.  And like most I lost.  I finished in 14,823rd place, and I walked away disgusted.  How was I supposed to know that some nobody TE on the Giants would score three touchdowns?  What the hell is anyone thinking playing this dumb game?  You have better odds of winning buying a scratchoff lottery ticket.

The Tournament Game
That's the first game we almost all see, the tournament game.  It's the one they advertise the big payouts to pique your interest to get you in. In the tournament game, you play a different sort of team.  You're trying to find at least 8 out of 10 guys who really spark your totals.  You hit, you win an exponential return (in the free game $0 could turn into $2, in a paying game $1 could become $100, $27 could become $100K).  In that free tournament, I picked a good team, and beat out 80% of the competition, but that gave me no reward and a feeling of unworthiness   I was playing the wrong game.

If you play tournaments, you take big risks for big rewards, and your team should reflect that.  You want big totals and you need to take chances to achieve those.  You might come up empty, but remember 1st place out of the money ends the day in the same shape as 100,000th place out of the money.  Don't fret your zeroes.

The Head to Head Game (H2H)
The realization hit me much later, if I played the same lineup in a daily game vs. one opponent I probably would have won.  Of course, I'd have to lay out some money to prove my point.  So I did and it worked.  I turned a buck into a buck eighty.  I played again, and I won some and lost some, but I discovered that this game of strategy was extremely interesting.  I didn't have to pick the 10 best players at each position, I just had to pick 10 players who as a group could outscore someone else who had the same idea as me.  This is a compelling puzzle for the mathematically minded sports fan, and what sold me on the game.  I am a fan of this concept, at least for fantasy baseball.

If you play H2H, you are really just trying to put together the best possible lineup for the money.  You often pay big money for safe strong picks, and take a few chances.  The chances you take are often forced by lacking funds to buy better players.  But this resembles the thought processes managers like Joe Madden and Terry Francona do when they start Ryan Raburn or Chris Denorfia.

The Third Game (Hybrid game)
There are a number of different styles of matches beside what's mentioned before.  You can choose to play any different number of opponents between 1 and 100,000.  The fewer you play, the more your lineup should look like a head to head game.  Beating two people simultaneously in a Triple Up isn't too different from beating one, and your prize for winning moves from $1.80 to $2.70 on a dollar wager.  The next step up is leagues. Draft Kings defaults Leagues at 5 or 10 teams, but you can create virtually any number you want.  Sometimes it's winner take all, some times it pays out top three or so.  The more payouts the smaller the prizes, and vice versa.  As you add teams beyond 3, you team should slide just a little bit from a H2H style roster to a Tournament roster.  The same is true for winner take all formats.

To summarize, there are two distinct games going on on Daily Fantasy sites that are offered to you through the identical web interface. Pick the wrong style team for the wrong type game and your wrong results should come at no surprise. Tournaments are like playing the lotto, if you could have some knowledge of what balls tended to do in the hopper in the past, and the hoppers weren't specifically designed to give each ball equal chances.  H2H is much more a skill game, And you can add a few more teams in a league to maintain the skill and up the potential reward.

The Stud Player

You can play in many different sized league universes (All day, Early games, Late Games, etc) and if you look at a player at a position in a 3 or 4 game match and you know in your heart of hearts that he's the only really good play at that position, you have two choices:

1. You can take that player at whatever the cost, or
2. You can grab some lesser player on a flyer hoping to play the contrarian.

If you choose option one, you just have to make your other picks better than the other guy.  You're playing a 9 or 8 or 7 man game with the remaining players.  This is a bit annoying, but it is what it is, just accept it.

If you choose option two, there is a good chance that every single team you play head to head and more than half of teams in larger league games will have that guy.  Your night will be made or broken with that decision.  But if you remember, you already knew there was only one good option there, so when every team gets a good night out of the guy you passed over, you're going to lose nearly all of your games.

This is the principle in abstract terms.

The concrete example is that if you take Jimmy Paredes at 3B over Josh Donaldson, and Mr. Donaldson does what he is wont to do, you're going to lose most if not all of your games.  But on the bright side, you did save $3200 of lineup money, which is useless after the games.

The Blue Jay Third Basemen cost me $15 bucks tonight.  Lesson learned.