Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

4.28.2015

A Day of Daily Fantasy Baseball is more than a Day of Baseball

Whew, glad to survive the day's game,  Nearly took a huge loss on the day.  I had my worst & second worst contest totals on two lineup cards last night (48.2 & 54.1).

I could say that the greatest lesson is about how it's rare a single player can win a game for you, but it's overwhelmingly evident that a single pitcher can sink you on his own.  I carried Jimmy Nelson, who was off to a strong start to the season, but gave up 7 runs and didn't even make it out of the second inning (-11.35 total).

Or how the violent happenings in Baltimore, make it so imperative that you make every effort to double check your games before they start to make sure that Rain or other factors don't turn your key player into a zero on your scorecard.  There's a wonderful irony that the main culprit was that 3B/OF on the Orioles who shall not be named who made my life hell this weekend.  I finally give in and play the guy, and the entire city explodes.

But the biggest lesson here is that you shouldn't look at the day of baseball as a single day of DFS.  Four of the matchup choices on Draft Kings have zero overlap (Early, Turbo, Late and Later).  So each one should be treated as a single day from the player's perspective.

As I mentioned, my ALL DAY lineup was torpedoed (OW 6L -$14), as well as my EARLY card (2W 6L -$4.80) by a single really awful pitcher outing.  But I came back enough in the later games to make the losses for the day bearable.

Now, I'm not saying that when you're behind you should double down in hopes to make up your losses.  This is almost never a good idea.  The best advice usually tells you to walk away and live to fight another day.  And that's what DFS allows you to do, if you have the capacity and the will.  I looked at the sunk roster card, mentally marked them as losses, took a deep breath, and played the night games with a fresh mindset.  Kind of like you got to do any day you take a hit.  I didn't buy the same series of players. I didn't try to avoid players on competitor's cards to make all the games mesh into one fantasy game when everything works out for me.  I didn't enter a bunch of tournament games hoping to make one really big score to make up the losses.  I attacked every game, the same way one should always do by trying to field the best roster one can for the money allowed.  I didn't change my betting tactics.  I did the things that have worked well for me thus far. I took on the night with a clean slate, and finished down 5 bucks instead of nearly $20.

With this understanding, I still wanted to mention how important pitching is.


1 comment:

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