GPP (sic) Lineups

Generally, there are two types of games available on Daily Fantasy sites.  They are normally referred to as GPP and Cash Games.  It is important to note that the lineup strategy differs in each of these games.

I don't like the term "GPP" used in DFS to refer to tournament style contests where you play a lot of people for higher rewards.  GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool, which covers many of these games, but many of the 50/50 games carry the same designation.  Also, many of the non-guaranteed games, like 10 man leagues or just about any winner take all format, should employ similar tactics. Cash games, on the other hand, cover H2H and 50/50's, and this moniker is also a little problematic, as virtually all games are awarded cash prizes (besides special prize games and steps).  The confusing terminology is probably one of the myriad ways the people in the know about DFS try to obfuscate the game to make it harder on new players.  I also think Triple Ups and 3-5 man leagues are sort of a hybrid between the two, and should be addressed by a blended approach.  The divisions are completely based on odds of winning considering the match a completely random occurrence.

If you remove the skill of lineup selection from the game, your odds of winning are (I've included the phrases I like to use to help understand my writing in other articles):

My Terminology	Type of Game	Approx Odds	Odds as Percent
Head to Head	Cash	1 in 2	50%
Hybrid	"Leagues?"	1 in 3-5	33%
Tournament	GPP	20 in 100	20%

Of course this doesn't take into consideration player skill, and some Double ups & Triple Ups add a few more entrants to make it a a true triple up (not $1 to win $1.80, but $1 to win $2) which decreases the raw odds by a small, but noticeable amount.  And, in tournaments, the percent of winners fluctuates depending upon the game, but 20% is a solid rough approximation.  Your skill is, of course, a very important factor to attempt to skew these odds in your favor.

Anyway, I heard a "pro" DFS player named David Epstein (BW5126-not the World Series MVP), who almost exclusively plays Tournaments on the Rotogrinders Daily Podcast earlier this week.  He recently won $100K in a baseball tournament. I'm not saying I learned everything I need to know from the 20 minute discussion, but my basic interpretation of his process looks like this:

• He starts, as all do, by pitcher selection
• He targets 6 of the 8 batter selections with specific players
• He then selects the remaining 2 based on best available, and can play upward of 20 variations rotating the last two slots on a significant number of scorecards.

I wanted to note this because I'm am going to play a few more tournaments going forward to try to understand this part of the DFS universe.  I'll be showing more frequent losses and, hopefully, higher payouts when I win.  The advice from David Epstein, I believe, is a good starting point.  Thankfully, Draft Kings runs a daily tournament called Quarter Arcade, which costs what you think it does, that makes testing ideas possible without punishing your bankroll.  There are also games at very affordable $1, $2, $3 & $5 price points.