The four things you got to know when Gambling, as relayed by Kenny Rogers in "The Gambler," are:
1. When to hold em
2. When to fold em
3. When to walk away
4. When to run.
Today, I'm walking away from the early games. It's a big decision for me because I'm trying to build a process for winning, which is part of why I created this website. And a system should work in virtually any environment. I've played every possible contest since the start of the season until now.
But one thing you need to avoid is the fellow you bought not playing. Whether it be a benching, a suspension, or, as in today's case, weather, a baseball player who doesn't play a game is definitely going to hurt you.
And with the KC/CHW, already called off, and the real chance of Delay or Postponement of the CHC/CIN tilt, there's really only one early game on the docket. It means I'm going to have to live this Saturday without Rajai Davis or Miguel Cabrera, but so be it. I don't know how I could pass on Jake Arrieta pitching today against the Reds, but I'd hate to pay for him, see a 75 minute rain delay in the third and watch Joe Maddon trot out Edwin Jackson after the delay. At the price, you'd need to pay you really want more than 3 innings of production. And I don't want to draft around that game and face Arrieta's 7 strong innings because the rain held off. The idea is to eliminate the strong variances that are avoidable, and I think this one is.
This means that two of the starting pitchers I was giving strong consideration to are off the table (Volquez, Arrieta). This puts me behind in my confidence in my daily lineups for the day.
I've also had three of my four bad days (losses of $10+) occur on weekend games. It's enough to make me pause, not stop, but pause, to reflect on what the issue is. My hunch is that the weekends are busier than weekdays, and thus there are more players. More players bring more variability in the lineups, meaning a greater chance that you might face someone who picks a strange player who has a monster game. Nearly no one was playing Zack Cozart on his big day this week. I certainly wasn't and am grateful for that.
1. When to hold em
2. When to fold em
3. When to walk away
4. When to run.
Today, I'm walking away from the early games. It's a big decision for me because I'm trying to build a process for winning, which is part of why I created this website. And a system should work in virtually any environment. I've played every possible contest since the start of the season until now.
But one thing you need to avoid is the fellow you bought not playing. Whether it be a benching, a suspension, or, as in today's case, weather, a baseball player who doesn't play a game is definitely going to hurt you.
And with the KC/CHW, already called off, and the real chance of Delay or Postponement of the CHC/CIN tilt, there's really only one early game on the docket. It means I'm going to have to live this Saturday without Rajai Davis or Miguel Cabrera, but so be it. I don't know how I could pass on Jake Arrieta pitching today against the Reds, but I'd hate to pay for him, see a 75 minute rain delay in the third and watch Joe Maddon trot out Edwin Jackson after the delay. At the price, you'd need to pay you really want more than 3 innings of production. And I don't want to draft around that game and face Arrieta's 7 strong innings because the rain held off. The idea is to eliminate the strong variances that are avoidable, and I think this one is.
This means that two of the starting pitchers I was giving strong consideration to are off the table (Volquez, Arrieta). This puts me behind in my confidence in my daily lineups for the day.
I've also had three of my four bad days (losses of $10+) occur on weekend games. It's enough to make me pause, not stop, but pause, to reflect on what the issue is. My hunch is that the weekends are busier than weekdays, and thus there are more players. More players bring more variability in the lineups, meaning a greater chance that you might face someone who picks a strange player who has a monster game. Nearly no one was playing Zack Cozart on his big day this week. I certainly wasn't and am grateful for that.
No comments:
Post a Comment