Tournament Breakdown

I've yet to win a tournament on Fan Duel (no Fan Duel 50/50's are not tournaments), and this irks me because I win these contests enough on Draft Kings that I'm pretty sure I have some clue how this goes.

On Wednesday, I put up a very respectable 47.25 in a $1 tournament on Fan Duel, and I still missed the money by a sizable margin.  This had me thinking, somethings up.  And yes something is.

There are philosophical differences between the two sites that make it harder to cash in a tournament on Fan Duel; and conversely easier on Draft Kings.

So I looked at all the tournaments I have access too on both sites.  I think there is a $3 tournament on Fan Duel, but I was unable to locate it.  I looked primarily at the tournaments that cost $5 or less because that's what I principally play, and it's probably what one should stick with considering the unlikelihood of winning.  But I included a couple of high dollar games, because there is something quite interesting going on there too.  I included the stats on first payout that was better than 3x the entry fee, so that one could weigh the value of putting money in a tourney vs. playing in a much easier to win 3-man league or Triple up.

The ratios of payoffs to money taken in on both sites is roughly the same.  The big difference is that Draft Kings first paying out position gets paid 2x his entry fee or less, while Fan Duel doesn't mark the first paying position until 2.5x the entry fee or more often 3x.  Because the payouts are higher there are fewer paying positions on Fan Duel, thus the harder it generally is to cash in a tournament there.  On my Wednesday excursion, I was playing in there $1 "Bunt" contest, where only 14.1% get paid.  I finished at just under top 16%, a number that would have gotten something on Draft Kings, but nothing that night.

Two other very interesting things were revealed in this study:

• Some contests have better odds of winning that others

Besides the philosophical website difference, differing games have noticeably different payout possibilities with the site. The $2 "Flare" on Draft Kings,for instance, cashes for only 17.4% of the entrants, while the $1 "Solo Shot" gives out prizes to nearly 3% more of the players.  The "Bunt" game on Fan Duel is by far the most difficult game to cash in on either site.  I said, and have often repeated, that tournaments generally payout to about 20% of it's entries.  I'm not recanting that statement, and will continue to use it to simplify some of the maths that need to be looked at, however, this post should remind you that it's not a rule, but rather a "rule of thumb" to make quicker decisions.

• The more you pay to get in, the better chances of winning something.

Once you get significantly beyond $5, the percentage of winners jumps.  Sure, you must be playing tougher, more seasoned opponents, and I'm sure that's how they rationalize it,   But the odds of placing improve enough that even lower dollar players should take notice.  There are two pieces of important advice I can give based on this understanding.

1. Wait to cash in your Player Reward points for as long as possible-You get frequent player points for playing and rather than cash in for a free ticket as soon as possible, wait until you can get up into the $10+ range if possible.  I know the Draft Kings "Moonshot" is always tempting, but the odds say this is the better play.
2. Save your tournament money up- I like playing tournaments, we all do.  And I would never say give them up altogether, the allure of big money attracts us to DFS.  But, play should be limited and certainly budgeted.  Let's say you're normal playing strategy was to put $10 on the line each night with $3 going to the moonshot each night.  Maybe, you could not play, or drop down to the Quarter Arcade and reserve the save money, and then once a week enter one $20 tournament.  Your chance of payout will be greater and you have the advantage of being able to wait for a night where you really like your lineup, rather than just fielding the best you can do for the night.