Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

7.22.2015

The importance of checking daily Lineups..

You really can't assume anyone is playing on a given day.  I made that mistake, along with what I believe to be countless others, yesterday.  With a 4 day break less than a week ago, I just sort of assumed no star player would get "a routine day" off this close to the All-Star Break.

My strategy last night was to take a Cheap Pitcher I thought might have a good night in the very good prospect Joe Ross of the Washington Nationals.  With a price of $5000 on both Draft Kings and Fan Duel, it would give me ample room to field a power packed lineup.  On Draft Kings this allowed me to get both Mike Trout and Jose Bautista into my outfield.  On Fan Duel, where the salary cap is $15K lower, I was only able to get Mike Trout.  I put together lineups on both sites I was very secure with and went out to meet friends that night.

And then, an hour before the Angels-Twins game was about to start, the news came that Mike Trout was scratched with some kind of unforeseen heel problem.  On Fan Duel, I was out of luck because the format used there locks rosters completely at start of the first game.  By the time Trout's injury became public (around 9pm), anyone who ponied up the better than 1/7th of the allotted salary space was going to take a big fat zero from the $5200 spent on the Angels Superstar.  The photo shows my seven point loss to Crazey Gabey of the Rotogrinders Daily Fantasy Fix podcast I spoke of before.  Honestly, there's no sour grapes here, but had I been aware of the lineup conditions and were allowed to change my roster, moving from Trout to Jose Bautista would have still put me behind, but by less that a single point.  I wound up just losing the Service Fees on Fan Duel last night, by winning as many as I lost, a good night considering I was playing a man down, but if I could have made a switch, I would have won every game but this one.

On Draft Kings, you are allowed to make a replacement within the contest from among players in games not yet started.  A policy the Yahoo has wisely adopted in its fledgling game,   I must admit that because I was no where near a computer when the news came out, I rostered Mike Trout pretty much everywhere.  I still ran the table in my games on Draft Kings because Kyle Schwarber and Gerardo Parra came through big for me.  The lineup card at the right shows how I construct a lineup utilizing the "cheap but solid" pitcher strategy.  Joe Ross earning 15.25 points (and 8.33 on Fan Duel) is all you could hope for considering the price.  I got a bunch of real monsters throughout my hitting lineup and put up a terrific number, even with Troy Tulowitski letting me down and Mike Trout's night off.  But oh what could have been had I been paying attention in my tournaments!

I've spoke about my difficulties with Fan Duel, and I think last night clarified the part of the issue that isn't completely my fault.  There's a lot more luck on the Fan Duel side because the one pitcher format makes the outing your pitcher has pretty much determine how your night will fare. You can get away with sloughing your pitcher when he's priced at $5000, but if you simply try to save a little cash out of the position by dropping from $10K to $8K, the savings probably won't have a great impact on your hitting lineup.

The second "systemic" problem is that the locking of the roster greatly increases your chances of beating yourself rather than getting beaten.  A noticeable percentage of your losses are going to come on days the lineup you field simply stinks.  Your pitcher implodes, your batters hit .125 on the night, whatever.  A small percent of these awful night are caused by your personal mismanagement of your team.  Like playing a guy in a game that gets rained out, or starting a player who isn't playing a la Mike Trout.  With Fan Duel's locking roster policy, the percent of contests where you beat yourself probably triples, maybe more.  I know a lot of folks who won't play All Day formats on the site for this reason.  And this is another reason why tournaments are so much more difficult there, as a single mistake can easily keep you out of the money.  The rules on Fan Duel make it much easier to make that single mistake.

1 comment:

  1. Checking daily lineups are very important for every fantasy sports fan. I usually follow https://www.dailylineups.com/. There you can also get a very useful guide explaining the points and strategies that you need to do really well with fantasy sports.

    ReplyDelete

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