Mucking DFS style

I play around sometimes with analogies, and one that most people think of, when it comes to DFS, is
playing poker.  I think this one is too spot on and important to dismiss with a whimsical half joke/half rant like I do with the others.

Both are considered games of skill, but there are different amounts of skill between the two.  One of the most important items to learn when endeavoring to try to play poker at any meaningful level is the knowledge of what hands not to play.  Reflexively, you want to play as many poker hands as possible, because that's where the money is, but educated play says there are times when the first two cards you're dealt in a game of Hold 'Em dictates you simply chuck in your cards.

But how do you know when to muck your cards in DFS? 

In Texas Hold 'Em Poker, one can categorize the first two cards into three groups: One's you should not play, One's you should play, and One's you might play.  In DFS, you set your opening hand called your lineup and when your done, if you can really be objective, the three categories apply just as well.

• One's You Shouldn't Play

Because the DFS game is a product of your mind against the Salary Cap, you really aren't at the same whims as you would be versus a randomly shuffled deck of cards.  One can easily note that the mathematically worst hand to start win in Hold 'em is the 7-2 off suit.  There is no such easy answer to the worst lineup in Daily Games.  In reality, this particular situation should rarely come up.  Primarily because your work and skill in picking a lineup ought to propel you, at least, into the next category.  Additionally, because of the highly random nature of the baseball game taken within a single game sample, a team full of relative useless players could have a great night, but that might be like say you could hold a 7-2 and the flop come 7-7-2.  Regardless, the most important idea to garner from looking at the "One's you shouldn't play" category, is that if you really don't like the team you put together, and you can't seem to fix it by changing the roster, you probably ought to "muck" the night.  You might think something like, "All the pitchers stink tonight, but that means the players I'm matched with are going to be fielding crappy pitchers too."  Stop yourself here.  In those instances, and they do happen, you are turning off the portion of DFS that requires skill and embracing fully the luck part of the game.  In Hold 'em, it would be like saying,"I've got a 4-9, but maybe he's got a 2-8." You could be that lucky, but the smart move is to keep your money out of the pot.

• One's You Might Play

Most nights your lineups are going to fit into this category.  You analysis and lineup acumen ought to bring you this far.  You are rarely going to start your night with a pair of Kings or a A-K.  Most nights you are going to say, "If this happens, this lineup should rock."  As in, "If they beat the over in Colorado, I'm going to rack up points."  Or, "If this pitcher pitches like his last two games and not the three before, my team will be solid."  Each night you are dealing yourself hands which resemble something like a pair of 3s, or on the better nights, a suited J-10.  If thing break your way, you are going to be fine.  In Hold 'em, the flop comes and your mental hypotheticals are answered and the skillful player knows what he must do next.  You get no such luxury in DFS.  What a good player needs to do is examine his hypotheticals closely.  You might feel good about counting on Paul Goldschmidt to carry your offense, but less so with a Kendrys Morales or Adam Lind.  If you seriously question your hypotheticals, you might want to adjust your betting strategy for the night.  I'm not say don't bet in these situations.  Following that mantra would mean you'd be playing about one night every 2-3 weeks.  But what you can do on days your not as confident in your predictions, is minimize the amount of your bets, or number of bets you make.  Better yet, you can shift into games that have better payouts like 3 team winner take alls, or leagues,or tournaments.  If you come to understand that your lineup's risk is better than average, the smart money says your return should be better than average.  Shoot for $2.70 on a dollar versus the common $1.80 from Head to Head's. 

• One's You Should Play

The only time you are going to be 100% certain that a lineup should play is the next morning after you check it's boxscores.  There will be days when you sat out and regret it.  However, there will be more days where you regret playings.  The random nature of baseball within a single game sample makes it impossible to predict what will happen exactly in a given day.  So you can look at your wonderful lineup that you love for hours and it won't tell you a single thing.  Probably 90% of all lineups ever fielded fall into the "might" category.  There is one indicator I've noticed that more often than not let's you know your roster is of the "Should Play" variety:  If you can honestly say to yourself, you got the one guy you really wanted at each and every position with money left over.  If you never had to compromise your team for the sake of the salary cap, you ought to play it and maybe play it a little harder.  Possibly up the number of games or money wagered.  These are the rare days you are dealt a pair of Tensor or a suited K-Q. You must be aware that the flop could come A-8-7, and you likely moved from best hand to second best hand at the table.  You knew there was a high likelihood that players in the game held a single single card that could sink you.  In DFS, you should probably fix your gaze at high number of player 50/50's or Triple Ups.  Because you know there could be Aces floating out there somewhere like a two homer night out of Mike Zunino or what a cheap Shin-Soo Choo did last night.  As the nature of the DFS game is more mercurial than we might like, you can insulate yourself by avoiding the Aces held in Head to Head games.