Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

6.09.2015

A Monday with CSURam88 (Peter Jennings)

If you play on Draft Kings, you might have noticed the screen name CSURam88.  It's a gentleman by the name of Peter Jennings (No, not that Peter Jennings), who is listed on the site as one of the DK Pros.  He won $1 million bucks in the site's Fantasy Baseball Championship last year, so he's a guy we all can learn something from.

He usually plays at a higher dollar value, a number too high to simply throw away for knowledge, but last night he put out 31 challenges for $1 with a single lineup.  I've played him before, even won one I think, but I thought it might be interesting to analyze his Monday Night's Lineup for everyone (in which he beat me by almost 30 points).

I believe his process had 4 components:
  1. He drafted the clear cut top pitcher - There's not of lot of Question the choice of Chris Sale in last night's matchup.  I took him too.  With pitchers there's Clayton Kershaw clearly at the top of the heap, and a small handful of pitchers in the second tier to which Sale clearly belongs alongside Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, and possibly one or two others.  Plus, he was
    facing the Strikeout prone Houston Astros Monday Night, so he was head-and-shoulders above the other pitching possibilities.
  2. He was not afraid of a small reach in his number 2 pitching slot - He played Mike Leake, a guy I didn't even consider for my roster (I went with A J Burnett).  Leake was priced at a very affordable $6800.  Mike Leake had a hell of a preseason, and a good couple of games to start the year, but hasn't been good of late.  The two considerations I believe pushed Mr. Jennings in his direction was the price (which allowed him to spend considerably more than me on hitters), and the fact that he was facing the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies are pretty good at making average Pitchers look good.  And with Cole Hamels starting for them, the Vegas line over/under was the lowest for the MLB slate Monday Night.
  3. He loaded up with batters who played at Coors Field - Draft Kings allows significant stacking possibilities, but requires your hitters to come from at least 3 different teams.  7 of his 8 hitters took the field in Denver on Monday.  He went with 3 Cardinals and 4 Rockies: The expensive guys came from the Cardinals side of the ledger in Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter.  The rest were value plays and one of the value plays, Ben Paulson of the Rockies was the deciding factor (we both played DJ LaMahieu, Nick Hundley, & Carlos Gonzalez.)
  4. He chose a "hot" hitter to round out his lineup -  Chris Colabello was fresh off a significant hitting streak and a game winning hit the night before.  He had been one of the best deals on Draft Kings for the past three weeks, but on Monday, the powers-that-be jumped his salary from $2900 to an even $4000.  He was facing Brad Hand in Toronto's homer friendly Rogers Centre.  Considering the price tag, I believe he was targeted, rather than someone Mr. Jennings settled on in the end.
CSURam88 is the only guy of the hardcore players, I've ever seen routinely target what I would
consider substandard pitching.  Others will take lesser hurlers at times, but normally on more backing that simply a weak opponent.  There is little doubt it works for him, and may be a bit of a holdover from his tournament strategy success.

I attached a screenshot at the left of an earlier game a week or so ago also versus CSURam88, when the Rockies were on the road, and you can see the mild reach at Pitcher #2 with Yordano Ventura.  It also demonstrates how his team changes when the Rockies saddle up in Coors Field.  It shows how important a knowledge of what is going on at Coors Field is to your success at DFS. My quick take on his other rosters is that he's a complete sellout for Pitcher Strikeouts and Batter Home Runs.  The only non-power guy in the lineup is Jose Altuve (In this game, I lost by 12 points).

Also, the Coors Field focus is one of the first strategies I picked up on.  Games there are high scoring with a greater frequency than any where else, and there are many nights where, like Monday, a bit player like Paulsen or Hundley give tremendous results for their money.  Draft Kings has addressed this with higher pricing in these matchups, but CSURam88 certainly thinks they are still worth the added cost.


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