Who should I play today?

I got an email Sunday from a fellow asking me who I recommend to play tomorrow.

I felt the urge to write something snarky, like there's dozens of sites that out there that will do that sort of thing, mostly poorly.  But I thought better of it.  It's what people have been taught to expect from Daily Fantasy Advice.  Why not?  It's more fun to talk about whether you think Joey Gallo can rip up Carlos Frias or whether Miguel Cabrera will crush Jon Moscot (who the hell is Jon Moscot?).

But it's relatively unimportant in my mind.  Maybe unimportant is the wrong word.  How about meaningless?  No one can accurately predict what will happen in a particular baseball game.  I'm not saying that's bad, it's what makes baseball my favorite sport.  There are no known outcomes, and nearly no "won" games, as in most other sports with time clocks.   And since many sites are so dependent on the Home Run for scoring, I would have to actually be confident in my capability to predict who will hit a Home Run on a particular day.  I can't do that, and anyone who tells you they have a handle on it are lying (take solace, they're not just lying to you, but also to themselves).  If someone could do it regularly, they would just gamble their way to prosperity.  It's something I noticed while working as a stockbroker: the good ones used the job to facilitate trading their own accounts, and the really good ones retired early.  I don't want to be the sort of advice giver that is all mouth and no money.  And DFS is all about the money.

Additionally, because of the special relationship DFS has between production and value, I find it impossible to field my personal lineup (for good or bad) more than about an hour before the games start.  I need to know the daily lineups to make a good decision about my roster.  Baseball lineups are far more fluid than other sports.  And a small change in one lineup can send ripples through your DFS lineup.   For example, let's say your looking at a relatively weak position like Shortstop, and you decide that the only SS you feel any certainty will have a positive night at the plate is Brandon Crawford, but for some crazy reason he costs $4,600.  But then lineups come out at Detroit is giving Andrew Romine the start batting ninth versus the incredibly weak lefty John Danks for only $2500.  Switching from Crawford to Romine at SS allows you to go from Kendrys Morales to Paul Goldschmidt at 1B.  And please note: this is an oversimplification of the process, a savings of $2000 might impact 3 or 4 different roster decisions that day. All decisions in DFS impact other decisions via the Salary Cost mechanism.  That's the beauty of the puzzle and the beauty of the game.

 I understand why sites do this: it's more interesting that hearing about these convoluted scenarios.  Real daily fantasy advice would be like hearing about a two team, eight player trade in season long fantasy baseball. You would have to know all the particulars like knowing that the guy has Mike Moustakas on his bench making the losing of Mat Carpenter not as big of a deal.  It would be boring as hell.  If you are looking for advice, I understand that CBS Sports and ESPN run a nightly DFS baseball programs somewhere in the 6PM EST area. At least it covers the basic problem: it is chronologically done at the proper time.

Anyway, I might consider specific advice somewhere down the line, primarily for other sports where there are far fewer game time decisions.  Or possibly for Starting Pitchers, since that is usually known well ahead of time and so very important, once I figure it out better (I'm not there yet, but I feel I'm getting closer every day).

My preference will always be to talk about the sport conceptually, rather than dwelling on the mercurial particulars.  The hope is you might learn from my experience and mistakes, and when I'm dead wrong, you would give me your thoughtful criticism to help me onto the right path.  Most Daily Advice will tell you how to field a roster, my goal is to help you understand the game.

All this being said, I do appreciate the emails and the positive feedback on this little excursion of mine.