First Look at Pitchers

Pitcher selection is paramount in Daily Fantasy Baseball.  In some cases, picking the right guy can
win a game for you.  In virtually all cases, picking the wrong guy will cause you to lose your contest.  I would be lying to you, if I said I had it all figured out.  And if most were honest with themselves, they would admit it too.  In an attempt to clarify my ideas, I'm going to discuss what I think about in every game as I peruse the probable pitcher list.  Note: I play in a two pitcher site (Draft Kings), so the universe of pitchers I consider playable needs to be a little larger than for one pitcher sites (like FanDuel).

The Primary set of questions I ask myself are:

• Is the pitcher good?
• Has he been good lately?
• Is he facing a weak hitting team?

A Secondary set of questions are

• Does he strikeout a lot of batters?
• Does the opposing team strikeout?
• Is the other team on a hot streak or cold streak?
• Does he have a good chance at winning?

The last set of questions are:

• Are there any splits I should be aware of (i.e. Pitcher better at home, Opponent great against Lefties, etc)?
• How has the Pitcher fared against this team in the past?
• Is the ballpark friendly to pitchers?
• Can this pitcher go deep into the game?
• Is there a key batter on the other team who crushes him?

I'm not an expert, but I've been playing long enough to know the basics of what to look for.  My problems, when they occur, are in interpreting the data.  Or the any one can win on any given day syndrome demonstrated by Chris Sale last night.  You might note that price really isn't a question I ask myself until the very final part of the equation.  Getting your pitcher right is so critical for success, I feel you need to get the right guy on the mound for your team regardless of the price.  And there are more options to find value at in a hitter position, where a bad outing won't sink your roster by himself. Generally speaking, the pitchers you choose will dictate how much you have to spend on hitters, and almost never the other way around.

I will generally categorize them into five categories, YES, MAYBE, NO, EXPLOIT, and NEED MORE INFO.

YES
This doesn't mean he will automatically be started for me.  There may be better options out there or similar options with a cheaper price.  This set creates the pool of likely starters for my team.

NO.
Just a pitcher I won't be taking.  Doesn't mean he's awful.  Just not up to snuff for today's contests.  On a different day with a different matchup could be starter for me.

MAYBE
There's something here I like, but there's something here that keeps me from committing.  Might be a tough matchup.  Might be a bad outing in the last start.  Or an injury concern. Whatever it is, he doesn't make the set of possible starters unless research shows me something I like or the pool of YES is too small to field two pitchers.

EXPLOIT
A more emphatic subset of "NO."  I don't just not want to start him, I want to give strong consideration to playing batters against this guy.  Also, if i'm looking for a cheap last guy to fill my lineup, I'd prefer for him to come from this category, especially if he hits early in the lineup or plays a position with a dearth of quality. It's not a pitcher selection question, but extremely useful a little further along in the process.

NEED MORE INFO
It is important in DFS, as in life, to be honest with yourself about what you know and do not know.  If really have no idea, admit it, and look up the information from the various available stat sites that are out there.  Don't let your pride be your downfall.

This is only a starting point in deciding what pitchers to select.  If all you got are two yeses then your work is done, but that's rarely the case.  But you start the day with as many as 30 pitchers to choose from, this is my process to narrow it down to a manageable few.