I've stopped playing DFS because the game is now completely rigged against the casual fan, and I recommend you stop or don't even start. What once was a nice addendum to a Wednesday evening of watching baseball has been corrupted beyond any semblance of reasonableness.
There are two main reasons:
I've documented how the house take on each game is 20%, which leads to a situation where you need to win 55% of the time simply to break even (previous post). I won't go into it here, except to say that common sense mandates that one must make more than the house commission to come out a head.
But new for 2016, we have this terrible new problem
The Human Player no longer exists on DFS Sites.
I've tried to document strategies that might give you a little edge in the DFS game. Some worked, Some didn't. But I can honestly say that I deposited $100 at the beginning of last year and withdrew $200 throughout the 2016 season (and I never won more than $50 in a tournament, and still have a few buck left over).
But, there are far too many factors in the game to keep track of in a human head. The Professionals already knew this a couple years back, but the heavy advertising attracted enough fresh meat that you could find enough games where you were matching wits versus another fan of your sport. The Pros built computer programs and refined their algorithms to get a distinct advantage. But we could live with that because a schmuck like me in Orlando, Florida could find another Schmuck in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and we could compete in a battle of wits. But they're gone. I'm barely there, Every single name you can choose to play against is using a computer program they purchased somewhere. Even Max DaLury (Saahil Sud) is selling his system called RotoXL. You are nearly always playing against a computer. And although you may win on occasion, this advantage of theirs is going to reduce your chances of winning by as much or more than the the outrageous DFS rake.
A new and higher Breakeven point is even harder to gauge because you no longer have the option of playing several games to ameliorate your odds. Technically, you can join 10 matches, but if you do the rosters you will be facing will either be identical or so closely related you are, in fact, placing a single bet each session. What this functionally does is take away all the small loss days [i.e. You bet 10 games at $1, you win 3 & lose 7, you've bet $10, but only lost $4.40] and pushed any off lineups you field more and more into the all or nothing category. There is no betting strategy that helps anymore, you are completely left with Lineup Strategy, which because of computer aided systems, you are severely disadvantaged in. I can't quantify it to an exact number, but for 2016 you pretty much have to be perfect in your selection to return a modest profit. You are left with two choices, stop playing or buy a program to maintain competitiveness and become part of the problem. And if you let the computer pick your lineup, what enjoyment is there? But as more players face this dilemma and opt for the latter, the problem gets worse and worse. If the legal issues don't sink DFS, this enemy from within assures its death with more certainty.
In tournaments it is even worse, because the robots will gobble up about half of the 20% of winning slots in the game with the same lineup. Tournaments were a long shot in 2015, but in 2016 they are even longer.
I don't understand why they allow this cheating to go on. If you went to a Chess Tournament with a Computer Assistant, you would get banned from play. If you went to a Casino, with a card counting machine, you wouldn't get paid out and probably be forcibly removed. Even in online Poker days, sites tried to prevent certain aided strategies that were harmful to game play. DFS blindly goes on, as an admission of the eventual loss in the courts, soaking up every last cent they can on their way to the dustbins of history.
If you don't stop, you're just kidding yourself. It was fun and hard to stop, I feel the same way. If you must play, here are some tips.
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| Actual Photo of DFS player in 2016 |
- The House take is Way too High
- The Human Player has Vacated Match Play
I've documented how the house take on each game is 20%, which leads to a situation where you need to win 55% of the time simply to break even (previous post). I won't go into it here, except to say that common sense mandates that one must make more than the house commission to come out a head.
But new for 2016, we have this terrible new problem
The Human Player no longer exists on DFS Sites.
I've tried to document strategies that might give you a little edge in the DFS game. Some worked, Some didn't. But I can honestly say that I deposited $100 at the beginning of last year and withdrew $200 throughout the 2016 season (and I never won more than $50 in a tournament, and still have a few buck left over).
But, there are far too many factors in the game to keep track of in a human head. The Professionals already knew this a couple years back, but the heavy advertising attracted enough fresh meat that you could find enough games where you were matching wits versus another fan of your sport. The Pros built computer programs and refined their algorithms to get a distinct advantage. But we could live with that because a schmuck like me in Orlando, Florida could find another Schmuck in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and we could compete in a battle of wits. But they're gone. I'm barely there, Every single name you can choose to play against is using a computer program they purchased somewhere. Even Max DaLury (Saahil Sud) is selling his system called RotoXL. You are nearly always playing against a computer. And although you may win on occasion, this advantage of theirs is going to reduce your chances of winning by as much or more than the the outrageous DFS rake.
 |
| Winning Outcomes Chart from 2015 Post about DFS game, NO LONGER APPLICABLE |
In tournaments it is even worse, because the robots will gobble up about half of the 20% of winning slots in the game with the same lineup. Tournaments were a long shot in 2015, but in 2016 they are even longer.
I don't understand why they allow this cheating to go on. If you went to a Chess Tournament with a Computer Assistant, you would get banned from play. If you went to a Casino, with a card counting machine, you wouldn't get paid out and probably be forcibly removed. Even in online Poker days, sites tried to prevent certain aided strategies that were harmful to game play. DFS blindly goes on, as an admission of the eventual loss in the courts, soaking up every last cent they can on their way to the dustbins of history.
If you don't stop, you're just kidding yourself. It was fun and hard to stop, I feel the same way. If you must play, here are some tips.
- Go into it knowing your money is most likely going to be lost.
- Don't bet more than you would consider an entertainment expense (I use the price of a movie ticket)
- Don't ever create a contest, the computers are waiting to pounce at these.
- Keep track of names of player you've played that are robots and avoid them.
- Find Friends to play against in private games (this is why I keep a few buck on the sites).
- Play on lesser known sites, the bots require volume and are less prevalent on off the beaten path DFS websites.
- Or play on FanDuel. The one pitcher option means that if the logarithms are wrong and you are right, you have a fighting chance.
- Play small dollar tournament because the high possible payout is the only thing that remotely mirrors your actual odd of winning.
- Limit yourself to Football, as the more highly volatile nature of that scoring makes the bots a little less effective (you're going to want the kickers in the game).
DFS was fun while it lasted, but now it's Dead.
[I was scolded for not offering a solution so here's my best idea: to save the casual player the sites should tier players by daily or weekly dollars played. For the algorithms to work their magic, they require volume. If there was a category for players of $50 a week who could only play amongst themselves, it would rid the bots from those games]
[I was scolded for not offering a solution so here's my best idea: to save the casual player the sites should tier players by daily or weekly dollars played. For the algorithms to work their magic, they require volume. If there was a category for players of $50 a week who could only play amongst themselves, it would rid the bots from those games]
