Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

6.06.2015

DFS wagering: The 55% rule

Daily Fantasy is not gambling, in a legal sense, because it has been given a exemption, citing it as a game of skill.  Though there is zero evidence to support this idea, I contend it is a game of chance which requires some skill like Poker.  Despite this firm acceptance of this unquestionable truth, I still think it is fun and challenging, and can be logged into your monthly expenses as a sort of reasonably low cost entertainment.  But it is what it is and that is a game of chance.

The only way that it's not like gambling is that you really have little to no shot of making money on this in the long run.  I'll admit there are some big winners out there who have made a good deal of money on this, but there's is the story of getting very lucky in a big payout tournament.  And where there is some level of skill in a head to head game versus another sports fan, much as there is in a game of poker versus a qualified adversary, there is equal skill in winning a big DFS tournament as there is winning big on a scratch off ticket.

The one and only reason you shouldn't look at DFS as gambling, is that the way it is currently set up, it is very bad gambling.  You are much better off going to a Casino and trying your hand at roulette or black jack.  This is because DFS sites take a share of the outcome that would make Las Vegas drool (20% on every game under $100, it drops to 18% at 100, not worth the extra risk).

So this is a fundamental of DFS you need to know.


You must win 55% of your games to break even.

It's simple math:
if you play 9 games at X dollars
You will have wagered 9X dollars
If you win 5 games, you will have won $9X (5 times 1.8X).
Winning 5 of 9 games is 55%

Now at a casino, if you were to sit at a roulette wheel and just bet red or black, you're odds would be pretty much the same.  The two double zeros on an American Table mean you won't win about 55.5% of the time.  I like the idea of looking at DFS like a trip to the Casino, you know if you go there's a good chance you might lose, so you don't bet money you can't afford to be without.  The Casino experience is enjoyable regardless of the outcome, but better if you come out ahead.  So if you come home late one night and notice the Dodgers are playing the Diamondbacks on the late slate, and tossing out a roster on your favorite DFS site for a couple of bucks enhances your viewing of the game, then have a good time with it.  I do this probably 4 nights a week.  It is fun.

But if you think you can beat it regularly then you're one of those guys who has a "system" for roulette.

I wrote this because I heard a so-called DFS expert on ESPN say that you only need to win about 40% of the time to come out ahead in Daily Fantasy.  Hearing her say this was kind of like hearing an old commercial telling me that 9 out of 10 Doctors prefer Camel brand cigarettes.  It's fraud, criminal fraud, so I won't be listening to anything on ESPN anymore.

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