Michael Pineda Happens

Last night, the story of the night, at least for me, was New York Yankee Pitcher Michael Pineda.  I had him in every lineup I fielded but one, and he had a god awful outing versus the mighty fighting Phillies.  When I play him, this is what I get.  When I don't play him, he's good for 12+ strikeouts and a win in my opponents lineup.

I know he's not top tier, but he might be second level, no worse than third.  And the kind of guy that should give serious consideration of rostering, especially when he's facing a patsy like the Philadelphia Phillies.  I drafted him in every season long league I could draft him in.  I believe he's good.

Yet, you get 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings with 8 earned runs.  What does this tell me?

• A bad outing can happen to virtually anybody.

Ok, maybe not too often with Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw.  But no matter how awesome you think a pitcher is and how favorable a matchup is, bad things can happen.  Take no shame in fielding Pineda last night.  It was the right call.  He's good, he strikes batters out, and the Phillies are one of the teams that makes pitchers look good.  Your strategy was sound, it was just an unlucky night.  

• One guy at Pitcher can crush your bankroll.

I got lucky last night and this didn't happen to me because I was lucky enough to field Albert Pujols, Byron Buxton, Jose Bautista, and Dioner Navarro on virtually every one of my rosters.  But I've been sunk before on bad nights by Mat Latos, Chris Sale, and David Price.  When you win at DFS, the tendency is to win incrementally.  A good return might be $30 won with $20 wagered (Net $10 - 50% return).  But when you throw out a terrible lineup fueled by a pitcher with a negative sign in front of a score, you can very easily lose every bet you make.  This is something you should both be aware of, and seriously consider playing a couple of different pitchers in different lineups on a night, if you want to insulate yourself.

• It highlights differences between DFS Sites

It was a curious night for me.  I won $7.20 on Draft Kings, I lost $0.60 on Fan Duel, and I lost $5 on Victiv.  Draft Kings was a good night because my other pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, did well enough to support my team with the good hitting I mentioned before.  On Fan Duel, I won every H2H game and lost my two tournaments, because in all my head to head's we both were rolling with Pineda.  The negative pitcher means your larger competition games (tournaments or 50/50's) are pretty much done.  On Victiv, the shielding of pitchers (I played the Yankees as the site uses Pitching Staffs), means there is considerably more variance in Pitchers fielded by players.  The Kershaw effect, where you feel you need to account for the best pitchers in baseball, regardless of whether you roster them, is mitigated by the shield of names of pitchers on Victiv rosters.

• We should do exactly what Michael Pineda does next.

Michael Pineda will dust off his shoes and come out versus his next team with everything he's got.  It may be awesome, or average, or awful, but he'll be on the mound giving all he can regardless.  The night of June 22 will be a forgotten memory.  As DFS players, we need to learn to shake off the home run ball and pitch to the next batter without fear.  Put the bad night behind you and field a new roster like the night before never happened.