NASCAR DFS tomorrow is a bit of a trap..
I generally advocate for playing the numbers in most sports, NASCAR even more so, but tomorrow's Cheez-it 355 at Watkins Glen would appear to be a different animal. The course is too different to base probable outcomes on past performance. Kyle Busch has been on fire lately, but my gut says he'll have difficulty finishing top 5.
Too many turns there at Watkins Glen. Seven lefts and four rights. Tricky enough to keep top qualifying speeds in the 120 mph range, and top speeds in last years race barely over 90 mph. It'll have a greater emphasis on skill as a driver and it looks like A J Allmendinger owns the track, the perennial mid-to low tier performer won last year, and took the pole in qualifying this year. He cost $10,200 on Draft Kings this week, more than Kevin Harvick, and might very well be worth it. The emphasis will be on driver skill versus speed of the car.
It's the kind of Race Jeff Gordon has a chance to cash in on on his farewell tour; it's the kind of race that makes me doubt my process on NASCAR thus far; its the kind of race built to encourage car crashes.
Additionally, with only 90 laps to divide amongst the entrants, the winner of the race even if he leads half of them, will score under 100 on DK.
Finishing position has to be the focus of your entries for NASCAR at Watkins Glen tomorrow. That's the reason I took a cheap dollar flyer on Chris Buescher who starts from the 32nd position, he gives me the cash to field 5 possible winners. He seems like the kind of guy who really gives it his all every time he gets into a Sprint Cup race, and if he can move into the mid 20's, I'll get the 25 points, I hope will put me over the top.
I'm going to play, but in small dollar tournament, high risk/high reward entries. And I've already prepared myself that this means I might not win anything. I don't know how to strategically insure against the principally unpredictable. All DFS is pretty unpredictable, my prediction is that the Cheez-It 355 will be even less predictable than most.
So I'm also going to toss up here on the site my lineup cards for both Draft Kings and Fantasy Feud. These are my hunches just after qualifying based on pricing. I could make changes before racetime, but this is my best guess for now.
[Afterword: I know I screwed the pooch this day, Buescher dumped in the first lap with Transmission problems, Gordon didn't fare much better: the point of this story is that sometimes it's a crapshoot, today was a crapshoot, and anyone can crap out on a given day, myself included]
I generally advocate for playing the numbers in most sports, NASCAR even more so, but tomorrow's Cheez-it 355 at Watkins Glen would appear to be a different animal. The course is too different to base probable outcomes on past performance. Kyle Busch has been on fire lately, but my gut says he'll have difficulty finishing top 5.
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| My Fantasy Feud Entry |
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| My Draft Kings Entry |
Additionally, with only 90 laps to divide amongst the entrants, the winner of the race even if he leads half of them, will score under 100 on DK.
Finishing position has to be the focus of your entries for NASCAR at Watkins Glen tomorrow. That's the reason I took a cheap dollar flyer on Chris Buescher who starts from the 32nd position, he gives me the cash to field 5 possible winners. He seems like the kind of guy who really gives it his all every time he gets into a Sprint Cup race, and if he can move into the mid 20's, I'll get the 25 points, I hope will put me over the top.
I'm going to play, but in small dollar tournament, high risk/high reward entries. And I've already prepared myself that this means I might not win anything. I don't know how to strategically insure against the principally unpredictable. All DFS is pretty unpredictable, my prediction is that the Cheez-It 355 will be even less predictable than most.
So I'm also going to toss up here on the site my lineup cards for both Draft Kings and Fantasy Feud. These are my hunches just after qualifying based on pricing. I could make changes before racetime, but this is my best guess for now.
[Afterword: I know I screwed the pooch this day, Buescher dumped in the first lap with Transmission problems, Gordon didn't fare much better: the point of this story is that sometimes it's a crapshoot, today was a crapshoot, and anyone can crap out on a given day, myself included]
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