DFS Pitching (a simpler strategy)

I've had better luck of late picking pitchers.  Drawing from my success with NASCAR picking, I've tried to come up with a simpler process.  I did post earlier a more detailed process for selecting pitchers, but I think I was committing a cardinal error of overthinking the matter.  There are a ton of considerations to account for when your selecting a pitcher, and you can spend hours on it.  And because there is such possible fluctuation in possible pitcher outcomes, I don't know if it's worth it.

So I've developed a three step process for picking pitchers.  Now, this only works for two pitcher sites like Draft Kings and Yahoo, on Fan Duel where 1 pitcher is selected, you need to carefully narrow down to the best pitcher on the menu because you won't win in larger pools or tournament, unless you choose one of the top 3 pitchers of the day, and more often that not you need the number one. With two pitchers, there are more possibilities of outcomes for both teams and vastly more variance in lineups fielded among DFS players.  You can from time to time strategically look for value in at least one of your pitchers.  So you have more funds to field a more power packed batting roster.  Not so for Fan Duel, there it's pick the best pitcher and hope for the best from the batters you can afford afterward.

The Three Step Process.

• Identify Teams whose Batters just aren't very good

Probably the most important set of statistics a DFS baseball player needs to know is what teams can't hit.  You start with the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, adding in a Freddie Freeman-less Atlanta Braves and a Giancarlo Stanton-less Miami Marlins.  And here's your baseline.  You also need to know that some teams have real difficulties versus lefties like the Colorado Rockies or the Chicago White Sox or don't hit Righties well like the San Diego Padres or Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  This reminds me of how in Fantasy Football a bad Defense can make a mediocre Running Back look like Barry Sanders.  These weak hitting teams can make a bad pitcher look good, but more importantly, they can make a good pitcher look like Greg Maddux. So...

• Look for Quality Pitchers facing these teams.

You should have a good idea of who the good pitchers are if you're playing this game.  We all know who they are.  This mental list should be significantly larger than just the Clayton Kershaw's and Max Scherzer's of the world.  There should be about 30-50 names in this pile.  It should range down to include the Carlos Martinez's, AJ Burnett's, and Edinson Volquez's.  Where you have one of the pitchers you think is good matching up against one of the teams you think can't hit, that's where you pick your starting pitchers from.  The nice thing about this is it gives you opportunity to get a slightly cheaper pitcher in, if you can't figure out a way to field Paul Goldschmidt or Bryce Harper. 

• Use other stats sparingly as tiebreakers.

You can fall down a rabbit hole with other stats you can look at as tiebreakers, and whatever works for you is okay by me.  But as this strategy developed around a simplicity paradigm, I look at really basic things:  First and foremost, I'll choose a pitcher at home over a pitcher on the road.  Then, I'll look at my personal perceived Win probability and capacity to strikeout the other team.  And I rarely go past this.  It's simple, and so far it's working better for me than hours slaving over stats.  I didn't come to this realization completely on my own, but it comes from my analysis of my past games versus CSURam88, especially for pitcher number two.

So that's my simple three step process.  Once you realize that there is absolutely no way to completely immunize yourself against your pitcher blowing up, you know that many times a $11,000 pitcher lets you down.  The best way to prevent this is to focus on facing teams whose batters have the least likelihood of beating your pitcher up.  Today, for instance, I ran with Marco Estrada facing the lowly Rays.  Two days ago, I took a $9200 Lance Lynn versus the weak hitting New York Mets.

My recent experience has taught me that there is room for a value strategy in two pitcher leagues. And there is something beautiful about a simple answer to a complex question.