Don't Play DFS...at least not with more than a couple of bucks. I've continued to play and I've discovered two reasons why I should stop (I've taken all my money out but $20).

1. The amount payed to the house is way to high at 20%
and new for 2016
2. It is nearly impossible to find actual players on the sites anymore. You are nearly always facing a computer.

Between the Legal Issue and the Playability issue, there is no room for the casual player. It's no longer a sucker bet, it's simply throwing your money away.

5.25.2015

Played a round of Fantasy NASCAR yesterday

I mostly talk about baseball, because that's what I know and really enjoy.  But, the Draft Kings site offers other sports like Football (College & Pro), Basketball (College & Pro), PGA, and Hockey, along with a couple of more off the beaten path sports, namely Soccer, MMA, and Nascar.  On a whim, I entered into a tournament and a head to head match (both for no money), just to test an idea, that if you stick with me, I promise will relate to virtually any game you attempt including baseball.

First, I must say that it's only one game and you can't read that much into this.  Second, I must tell you that I don't know anything about auto racing.  When scrolling through the names, there were only two drivers I knew anything about: Dale Earnhardt Jr and Danica Patrick.  I might of heard of a couple of the names somewhere in the past, but with absolutely no context.  I am assuredly a full-fledged amateur to the world of NASCAR.

I decided to take a simple and principle lesson from the hundreds of baseball matches I've entered and apply it here:  Get the most value you can for your buck and use the money saved to be able to afford one key player.  I didn't even bother to see how the scoring was done; I just went with the averages; and I still don't know. Under the Draft Kings NASCAR rules, you have to choose 5 drivers.  I used this basic strategy.
  1. I took the guy with the highest average points first regardless of cost (Truex)
  2. I filled the next three slots with drivers who appeared to have high average points compared to similarly priced drivers (Elliot, Harvick, and Newman)
  3. The final spot went to the remaining driver with the best average points period (Almirola).
I started with $50,000 available and ended with $500 left over.  And I've got to say it turned out pretty good.  Here is the head to head match in which my drivers emerged victorious:


OK, I know it was a free game and beating a guy with no money on the line isn't too impressive.  That's why I entered a free tournament also to see how this might fare in the general population.  Here's the results line from both of my NASCAR endeavors yesterday:


It shows that I finished in 338th place.  These free games are extraordinarily difficult to win, paying out a paltry prize only to 5 players out of a possible 10,000.  But it can be used as a gauge to see if your roster selection strategy works or not.  There weren't 10,000 participants, but finishing 338 out of 6215 means my simple plan from the mind of a person who never watches and doesn't even care about the sport beat out 94.5% of the participants.  Now because tournaments are a swing for the fences undertaking, and those with very few winning slots even more so, it would be erroneous to think that I would have beat 19 out of 20 players in head to head.  Whatever percentile you score in a tournament, to be safe, you should probably reduce by about 20% to allow for the participants who are fielding rosters they never would dare play in Head to Head. 

Like I said, It's really only one game and you can't read that much into it.  But I've done the same thing before with similar success in Basketball.  Some success in Football, Hockey, and Soccer. And absolutely no success in MMA.  I think NASCAR might be more predictable than other sports: cars are cars, and machines don't vary much day to day, week to week.  This flyer on NASCAR has reaffirmed my faith in the strategy of "get enough value to grab a stud player," and piqued my interest in the potential of NASCAR contests going forward..

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