I was so close to having one of the worst days I've ever had on the site. I had spent a lot on several lineups on Miguel Cabrera, who took an 0-fer vs. the incredible Mike Pelfrey. And a day after, a bunch of folks got hosed on various DFS sites by starting players in the cancelled Orioles-Red Sox game, I started a player who wasn't in the lineup for his team, and went out for the night. Thankfully, that player was Jake Marisnick who came in as a pinch hitter in the 7th and miraculously got three at-bats, hitting a triple and a double with one RBI for a very solid 15 points on Draft Kings. A nice reminder that there is a great deal of luck to this game, but that's not much of a lesson.
I learned something over the past two days about pitching watching the Astros-Padres games and watching my players and those of my opponents. It seems that what makes a good pitching outing in real baseball doesn't exactly translate to Daily Fantasy Baseball.
I'm on board as a believer in what is going on in Houston this year. That is a good baseball team, and I stayed away from the Padres pitching because I thought Houston could hit. And I was dead on with the prediction as the Houston Astros put up some high quality crooked numbers with 9 on Monday and 14 on Tuesday. I understand that a great deal of this scoring came not against the starting pitchers, who we use in DFS, but the San Diego bullpen. But the starting lines the last two nights were run of the mill to poor by real baseball standards:
Tyson Ross numbers: 5IP 5H 2BB 4R 4ER 9K 1HR 1.40WHIP 7.20ERA
Pretty bad by general standards, and exactly what you need to do as a pitcher to set your team up with a loss. But on Draft Kings that was worth 16.45 points. Not a stellar number, but a very solid pitching outcome. Good enough to keep you in games, provided the other team doesn't field a phenomenal pitcher and your hitters back you up. On any given day, if you look at the probable pitchers, more than half of them will be averaging less than 16.45. Tomorrow, for instance 11 starters are averaging above and 19 are below that number. A solid DFS outing can easily result from a shaky Major League outing.
James Shields number the day before were better but not exactly good. It looks a little better on paper because the two runs he allowed in the 5th inning were marked as unearned. The rule book favors Mr. Shields but the eye tells a different story. The error came when the San Diego shortstop mishandled a throw on a Jake Marisnick stolen base attempt. I don't understand why you can't get an error on the second half of a double play, which are completed routinely, while you can assume the out on a stole base attempt, when the absolute best catchers struggle to throw out 1 out of 4. Shields allowed a ground rule double to the next batter. And a line drive base hit to the following, which means that Marisnick would have scored had he never attempted the stole base. The error was a gift to Big Game James. Who knows maybe MLB will correct this later*.
James Shields Numbers:6IP 6H 1BB 3R 1ER* 1HR 12K 1.17WHIP 1.33ERA (4.50*)
Ok, the scoring error aside, this is a pretty good game: Quality Start material that should leave your team with a least the possibility of winning. Not stellar, just good. However, James Shields was one of the two best pitchers on Draft Kings that night with a whopping 31.45 pts. That is spectacular, not just good. The scoring system on DFS sites are skewed significantly from the real world baseball game.
What's the catch? What's the thing you need to know? The big thing that both these pitchers did right (or maybe Astros batters did wrong) was strikeout a very good number. That's the key lesson here: if you can guess what pitcher is going to accumulate 10K's, then even if he pitches poorly, you'll have a decent outing like Mr. Ross. If he shows up just reasonably well in the other aspects of his pitching performance, you'll get a fantastic outing like Mr. Shields. If he actually pitches well in the game, then you've just hit the Jackpot.
I learned something over the past two days about pitching watching the Astros-Padres games and watching my players and those of my opponents. It seems that what makes a good pitching outing in real baseball doesn't exactly translate to Daily Fantasy Baseball.
I'm on board as a believer in what is going on in Houston this year. That is a good baseball team, and I stayed away from the Padres pitching because I thought Houston could hit. And I was dead on with the prediction as the Houston Astros put up some high quality crooked numbers with 9 on Monday and 14 on Tuesday. I understand that a great deal of this scoring came not against the starting pitchers, who we use in DFS, but the San Diego bullpen. But the starting lines the last two nights were run of the mill to poor by real baseball standards:
Tyson Ross numbers: 5IP 5H 2BB 4R 4ER 9K 1HR 1.40WHIP 7.20ERA
Pretty bad by general standards, and exactly what you need to do as a pitcher to set your team up with a loss. But on Draft Kings that was worth 16.45 points. Not a stellar number, but a very solid pitching outcome. Good enough to keep you in games, provided the other team doesn't field a phenomenal pitcher and your hitters back you up. On any given day, if you look at the probable pitchers, more than half of them will be averaging less than 16.45. Tomorrow, for instance 11 starters are averaging above and 19 are below that number. A solid DFS outing can easily result from a shaky Major League outing.
James Shields number the day before were better but not exactly good. It looks a little better on paper because the two runs he allowed in the 5th inning were marked as unearned. The rule book favors Mr. Shields but the eye tells a different story. The error came when the San Diego shortstop mishandled a throw on a Jake Marisnick stolen base attempt. I don't understand why you can't get an error on the second half of a double play, which are completed routinely, while you can assume the out on a stole base attempt, when the absolute best catchers struggle to throw out 1 out of 4. Shields allowed a ground rule double to the next batter. And a line drive base hit to the following, which means that Marisnick would have scored had he never attempted the stole base. The error was a gift to Big Game James. Who knows maybe MLB will correct this later*.
James Shields Numbers:6IP 6H 1BB 3R 1ER* 1HR 12K 1.17WHIP 1.33ERA (4.50*)
Ok, the scoring error aside, this is a pretty good game: Quality Start material that should leave your team with a least the possibility of winning. Not stellar, just good. However, James Shields was one of the two best pitchers on Draft Kings that night with a whopping 31.45 pts. That is spectacular, not just good. The scoring system on DFS sites are skewed significantly from the real world baseball game.
What's the catch? What's the thing you need to know? The big thing that both these pitchers did right (or maybe Astros batters did wrong) was strikeout a very good number. That's the key lesson here: if you can guess what pitcher is going to accumulate 10K's, then even if he pitches poorly, you'll have a decent outing like Mr. Ross. If he shows up just reasonably well in the other aspects of his pitching performance, you'll get a fantastic outing like Mr. Shields. If he actually pitches well in the game, then you've just hit the Jackpot.
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